Predictions 2006: Media and Technology<< Dull Dish from Davos | Main | Signs o' the Times? >> David Card | January 25, 2006, 08:30 PM Convergence is dead; long live Convergence. Vertical integration and synergy are dead...uh, well, maybe. Synergy shouldn't be dead. All media should be multi-media. One brand, one audience, multiple channels, multiple receivers. Optimize programming for each, fine-tune revenue models likewise, but drive traffic across all. Cross-promote. This is The Law. Repeat every year. Make or Break in 2006 - Tivo: somebody buys 'em. Some suggest Netflix (not bad), some say Apple (not bad at all), some say Blockbuster (gahghhh). But what about Nielsen Media? Is Tivo a user experience? a consumer electronics device? real VoD? an advertising/promotional network? a market research tool? We'll find out this year. - MySpace: Rupert bought 'em. This year we'll find out if the fad is sustainable and, more important, if News Corp. can make money off it. If it isn't, or it can't, it'll be over, and everyone will know by the end of 2006. I'm writing "21st Century Portals" in Q2. You'll find out then. - AOL.com: see above. Bleeding-Edge Indicator Deconstructing your site is the critical concept Jupiter produced last year, introduced by colleague Barry Parr. Most companies won't figure it out in 2006. Simply put, "Publishers must make their sites the archive and Google their search page." Gawd knows, I'm one of the original proponents of herding the sheep, but there will be a whole new way of doing that. It's not a site anymore, it's a network of landing pages. Non-Events Things that will be talked about a lot, but won't have a big dollars and sense impact in 2006: - Breaking up Time Warner: (a la Viacom) won't happen Requisite Flippant Management Prediction Something's going to happen at Yahoo. The best-positioned online media company just ain't getting the respect it deserves. And some heavy hitter will leave Google. That's a slam-dunk. It won't hurt them. Following are some of my favorite '06 predictors, both for amusement value and prescience. I'll let you figure out which is which: Organic's Mark Kingdon |
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