Looking for a Trend in Net New Broadband Subscribers

Doug Williams | July 28, 2008, 02:12 PM

Last week a reporter inquired as to whether AT&T's dismal net broadband additions (consumer and small business) of 46,000 for the entire second quarter was a problem with AT&T or an indication of a larger economic problem overall. While I agreed that 46,000 was a ridiculously low number by AT&T's standards, I wasn't willing to offer up directional advice on the broadband market or the nation's economy based upon one number.

But what about two? This morning, Verizon reported net broadband additions (consumer and small business) of just 54,000 for the second quarter 2008, less than one-fifth the number of net adds from 2Q2007. (Verizon's data is adjusted to account for the completed sale of assets in Vermont, New Hampshire and Maine.)

A coincidence, a trend? As I wrote in a recent report, broadband subscribership is cyclical in nature, with historic second and fourth quarters registering relatively few net additions as compared to the first and third quarters (see figure 1). Best to wait for a few more results before getting carried away, though. Stay tuned...Comcast reports on Wednesday July 30...Cablevision on July 31...Charter on August 5....Qwest and Time Warner Cable on August 6...RCN on August 7...