Posts by Patti Freeman Evans (bio)

Pfreemanevans | August 21, 2008, 10:12 PM
Online Sales and the Economic Environment: Q2 Update

News regarding the economic situation continues to be relatively gloomy and has been reflected in the Q2 results that offline retailers have been reporting. For example JC Penny reported Q2 comp store sales declined 4.3% versus last year, Abercrombie and Fitch Q2 comp store sales were also down by 11% versus last year.

Wal-Mart US (+4.6% w/o fuel increase versus Q2 2007, in contrast to a 1.2% increase for Q2 2007 versus Q2 2006) continues to do well on the strength of its overall low price positioning and those product lines that contain necessities rather than discretionary items. This performance shows a continued trend of consumers trading away from mid-market stores down to off-price sellers.

Online sellers like Amazon (US net revenue +35% versus a year ago); Overstock (over 20% growth in gross bookings) and eBay (WW GMV +8%) continue to post healthy increases supporting the notion that online continues to be strong. However, online sellers are beginning to lower expectations for the second half of the year in spite of their success thus far.

In contrast to the strong online performance by some of the top retailers, the census bureau's Q2 ecommerce sales increase is posted at 9.5% versus Q2 2007 - the smallest increase ever and a 22% increase for Q2 2007 versus 2006.

The slightly positive effect of the economic stimulus checks is pretty much played through now and will not have an effect on the coming months.

The prolonged nature of the economic slowdown and increasing consumer prices (e.g. gas, food), with no real relief in site this year, are beginning to wear on the online consumers. Thus, we believe that the overall online growth rate for 2008 may be slightly softer than Jupiter originally projected.

By Patti Freeman Evans & Vikram Sehgal

Pfreemanevans | May 22, 2008, 10:28 PM
Update on Online Retail in Light of the Current Economic Situation

We continue to hear from economists that the rise in prices for gas and food-staple prices here in the US is driven by largely global demand. Coupled with that is a softening US job market and sagging home prices. Customers will continue to feel a squeeze in their pocketbooks.

Conflicting reports about the prospect or fact of a recession in the United States abound. Either way, the above factors will likely continue to pressure the American consumer for some time. And the media continues to emphasize the extremes of the situation, ratcheting up negative consumer perception.

In fact, according to a recent JupiterResearch consumer survey 36 percent of online users plan to reduce their spending online this year. On average they plan to reduce their spending by 5 percent. Though these figures show the impact of the overall economic situation on the consumer perception, we have not seen reduced online spending behavior materialize in aggregate, to date. Jupiter firmly believes that the overall online retail arena will remain health, growing 15 percent over last year.

Recent retailer earnings reports bear this out. A few examples of online only company that have reported first quarter results are: Amazon (net sales up 37%), eBay (24% increase in net revenue, 12% increase in GMV), Bluefly (14% increase in revenue with a 2% increase in AOV and 12% increase in the number of transactions). Overstock (25% increase in GMV). Furthermore, anecdotal evidence from retailers and vendors serving online retailers shows that across the board retailers are not experiencing overall softness in their online sales. .

Not all retailer news is rosy. An exception to this sustained performance arises in a category that is perhaps particularly sensitive to challenging economic conditions: fine jewelry. Bluenile, generally a retail website that exhibits best practices, has seen increased sales this year, but not at the same pace as in years past. Bluenile reports 5% increase in Q1 net sales, vs. 34% and 30% Q1 increases in 2007 and 2006 respectively. But, the overall picture remains positive as evidenced by the US census bureau Estat (www.census.gov) numbers show a 14% increase in year over year sales for first quarter 2008.
By Patti Freeman Evans, Vikram Sehgal

Pfreemanevans | May 21, 2008, 07:34 PM
Parental Supervision at eBay

This week eBay rolled out their new rules for the feedback and seller ranking systems. On the one had it is sad because the community is no longer able to police itself. Competition is growing, sellers are getting really savvy. And, some sellers are aggressively working to improve their rankings via bullying tactics like withholding feedback until a buyer gives them positive feedback. Tsk, tsk. This tactic along with other developments on both sides (buyer and seller) just show that eBay as a market place is maturing and needs new controls in order to keep it a fair and safe place to transact.

Some might say that these new rules will squeeze out little sellers. Sadly, small sellers get squeezed no matter what. But I don't think that eBay's small seller base is inherently being victimized here. A small seller does not build a business by providing feedback to buyers, they build business by meeting or exceeding buyer expectations and providing unique products. These rules don't hinder that ability. Further, getting exposure has always been a bit of a numbers game, with bigger sellers able to get more eyeballs. The changes do up the thresholds for power seller status, but that should not affect the smaller sellers either. The challenge is for small sellers to be visible in a more controlled environment. Again, they can do this by excelling in their product presentation, service and delivery execution. These actions will result in higher feedback scores and thus more visibility. It is tough, but when you want to compete with bigger sellers, you need to differentiate to stand out. And sadly, we can’t cry to our parents about the big kids getting too much attention when we are out of high-school.

Pfreemanevans | April 02, 2008, 09:26 PM
Amazon Brings Text to Buy

Tuesday Amazon launched their TextBuyIt service that allows Amazon members to use their mobile phone (even very basic ones like I have) to text Amazon, find products and buy them through a few step process. Seems like it could serve an impulse buying circumstance. This does expand the option of buying from a website via your mobile phone to a group of customers who are not early adopters of internet enabled phones. On the other hand one could argue that they will be less likely to use this service because all they do with their phones is talk. The bigger issue is that this service might raise awareness of a broader base of customers to use their phone as a purchasing device, not that customers will aggressively use it, but raising awareness is a first step.

Pfreemanevans | March 24, 2008, 09:05 PM
Google's Search within Search Tool Painful, but Perhaps Inevitable

Retailers have been mad at Google before: Gmail ads, competitive bidding on branded terms. And yet, retailers still cite search (organic and paid) as the top revenue driver among all sources. I do totally get their anger. What company would be happy to see competitive ads presented when a customer specifically asks for info about your own brand.

But there is a bigger picture issue here, even beyond the state of retail site search experiences. And that issue is that retailers will continue to face an arena that is increasingly diffused. Meaning that customers will have more and more easy-to-access avenues to discover, learn about, price compare and buy products. See our report about this issue: <em>Multichannel Retail: Understanding an Increasingly Complex and Competitive Market Google's new search feature is just another step along that path. As customers become more accustomed to non-traditional interactions as they shop, retailers will have to adjust. So, improving their own site search is a start. Also, optimizing their search terms, especially in organic search is critical. But, also, retailers should realize that this secondary search experience might send a more qualified customer and thus have a positive impact on conversion. So, retailers should watch how customers are interacting with this secondary search to understand how to better serve them when they do actually get on to their site. Because, after all, even though many shoppers use Google as part of their process, the most common reason they buy from any site is previous experience with that site. So take what ever you and learn from this Google tool and apply it to your site to reinforce customer loyalty and mitigate the impact of competitive ads.

Pfreemanevans | March 13, 2008, 05:40 PM
February Retail Sales

The commerce department reported a .2% decline in retail sales today which was below what economic analysts were projecting (.2% increase). Disappointing to be sure, but not entirely unexpected due to the hammering consumers have taken over the last few quarters and the addition of disappointing employment numbers. We are seeing a continuing trend of consumers shifting their purchases from discretionary items like consumer electronics and home products over to more necessary items like food, apparel and HBA. Consumers have finally started decreasing their spending on gas as well. So overall consumers are reacting to the dismal news they hear on a daily basis.

Some bright spots are likely due to this shift in spending. Wal-Mart increased, as did Costco and Target. JC Penny and Nordstrom were down even though they said apparel categories were relatively strong. And we are hearing conflicting reports about the upscale and luxury markets. Saks did well, increasing by 3.4% across same stores, but Burt Tansky from Neiman Marcus said he was seeing softening from his top customers.

Still online fares pretty well, with many retailers reporting very strong growth. We don't expect online growth will be too severely impacted by this difficult market unless a recession becomes very deep and very long. Newness and high end customers will bolster online sales through a slow down most likely.

Pfreemanevans | February 14, 2008, 06:30 PM
Amazon the Egalitarian...

I just saw Amazon's new program where on some Amazon product detail pages, competing or complementary items and their prices now appear in a list of text-link ads under headings such as "Available at these other websites." It is an interesting endeavor, perhaps moving Amazon even further along to being a ubiquitous marketplace. The links are clearly for other retailers but they do look like they belong on Amazon, rather than like paid affiliate placements. At the bottom of the list are options to buy used items and a link to sell your own item. Although there are only three listings of other retailers on the pages I viewed, this feature seems like a possible win-win. Though other retailers have tried ad placements before to little success, in this case the information provides just what the customer is looking for. In fact, as customers shop online, they go to two sites on average as they research a purchase. The most frequently cited reason for using multiple sites is to find more prices. Amazon allows customers to satisfy that need while remaining on their site. this may create even greater value to Amazon customers, as well as a new revenue stream for Amazon. I like a win-win when I see it.

Pfreemanevans | January 17, 2008, 09:13 PM
NRF Views: Paco Underhill Has Been Cloned

At the NRF Big show this week I saw some new technologies that take a page right out of Paco Underhill's wildly successful consulting book. One company is called VideoMining. They use simple security cameras in retail stores and their technology creates metrics from the actual video footage. Figures like how many people go to the left when entering the store, how many items do people pick up, how long are they in the store, etc. VideoMining creates reports and dashboards for the retailers to assess and act upon (perhaps this is really where no one can be like Paco). But, this technology is both exciting and a little scary. It's exciting because it gives store retailers a way to track instore behavior in a similar manner to website tracking and can provide a rich trove of data. The key will be knowing what to do with the data, which is not small task as we have seen in the online space. On the downside, there could be privacy issues afoot. Since the video is no longer just used for security purposes, consumers might take offense. We'll be watching...or at least someone will be.

Pfreemanevans | December 18, 2007, 03:36 PM
Back Surgeons Beware

I've been playing with an Amazon Kindle over the last few days. Few things in this world are more intuitive to use than a book, and the good news is the Kindle is pretty easy to use and very comfortable to read at long stretches. I know they are sold out now, Amazon is taking orders and should have more soon, too bad for some holiday gifts. But, I think the real life of this product is longer than a gimmick for the holiday season.

Around my neighborhood I see kids walking to school laden with backpacks as big as they are and that sag under the weight of all the books they carry. In fact one kid was struggling so badly that her dad, in exasperation, finally just grabbed her backpack from her and heaved it over his own shoulder. I wonder if the Kindle, or perhaps Sony's version, aren't the type of tool that will alleviate this extreme burden from school kids and save their backs from certain lumbago.

Pfreemanevans | December 10, 2007, 07:32 PM
Apple Store Focuses on Training as well as Product

I went to the opening of the new Apple store on 14th St. and 9th Avenue here in NYC last week and was once again impressed. The location is very hip, in the meatpacking district where all the cool people - and presumably Apple customers - hang out. But it's not that convenient to get to. I guess they chose hip over convenience which is probably okay since Apple stores are destinations.

The store itself is lovely and exhibits the same clean design as the other stores in Manhattan and the cool glass spiral staircase similar to the 5th Avenue location. One thing I found to be impressive was the third floor. It is totally devoted to training and service. So one third of the store's total floor space is devoted to non-selling (or at least not directly) activities. This approach is clearly about long-term customer care and loyalty driving tactics. Quite impressive when you think about sales per square foot calculations that store-based retailers rely on as a key metric. Kudos to Apple. I do think that getting people fully engaged and proficient (the ultimate sampling opportunity) with the product is the ultimate in customer engagement and retention. Plus, there is some element of acquisition opportunity too. Just think about trying to buy a computer and assume one needs help getting started or optimizing system use, a key consideration is how to find that type of service. Having a local store with a service like this Apple service might motivate your to buy there rather than from another seller.

Pfreemanevans | November 29, 2007, 03:39 PM
Cyber Monday Drives 'Em In

Following on the heels of a strong Black Friday weekend, Cyber Monday seemed to keep up pace. We are hearing reports of 20%+ increases in sales overall. And some specific results are pretty impressive. eBags.com had their second biggest day ever and saw sales increase 70%. Traffic to CyberMonday.com was three times heavier versus last year. And, according to Hitwise traffic numbers, the share of traffic to retail websites increased by 27% over previous year. But, Cyber Monday traffic was still not as heavy a traffic day as Thanksgiving Day and Black Friday. It just goes to show us that heavy promotions work - even at the expense of AOV (both online and offline). Let's hope it is all worth it at the end of the season.

Pfreemanevans | November 26, 2007, 10:04 PM
Another Black Friday

If you look at just the top line sales, Black Friday 2007 was a great success - increase of anywhere between 7 and 8.3% have been reported. This is much in excess of the overall holiday retail season increase of 4% projected by the National Retail Federation. Good news. And, we are seeing reports that the increase was due to more people flocking to the stores. So the hype and advertising worked. Again great, also because the primary reason people choose a store to buy from is previous experience. So good.

But, on the other hand, the average order value has been reported to be less than last year. It looks like the $1000+ HDTV’s are not the hot item anymore, but rather $129 GPS and $150 digital picture frames are moving briskly, along with the traditional categories of apparel, books, cd's and dvd's. But also, if the offers were more aggressive than last year for the same merchandise, AOV goes down again.

Last year, we saw a strong Black Friday weekend but a bit of a soft December. Perhaps we have trained holiday customers more than we have the rest of the year to only buy during the big promotions.

Pfreemanevans | October 23, 2007, 11:32 PM
Amazon’s Earnings

Third quarter revenue up 41%. Operating margin down 2 basis points. Hummm, could it be Harry Potter’s fault?

Pfreemanevans | September 13, 2007, 08:26 PM
Image Recognition Technology Emerging

Today, Yahoo! Shopping launched their shop by color feature. The tool makes use of image recognition technology to match the color of pixels in photos sent to Yahoo! Shopping by their retail partners to the 56 different color groupings they have outlined. Yahoo has applied this new software only to categories where color might be most relevant such as apparel. Some retailers have rudimentary sort by color features in their search tools, but not to this degree. And, since the ability to drill down on search results remains one of the most useful features to online shoppers, more robust attributes are a good thing. Yahoo’s tools isn’t perfect yet, a search for white women’s blouses showed a number of green and pink camisoles – most likely due to the color of the mannequin that dominates the skimpy piece of apparel and thus overweighs the color matching. Bugs not withstanding, this is a nice feature the builds on the image recognition developments that have recently arisen from companies such as Like.com.

Pfreemanevans | July 09, 2007, 03:37 PM
Be a Parent to Your Customers

I have been on the ecommerce and direct marketing conference circuit over the last few months and have heard a lot about customers now being in control or “in the driver’s seat” and how this may change how we do business. While I agree that we are in an era of changing relationships between customers and brands, I don’t really believe that most customers what to be in the driver’s seat. What customers want is to be heard. Companies should put them in the passenger’s seat, and let them act as navigator while brands keep their hands firmly on the wheel and their foot on the gas, or brakes.

Also, there is a growing amount of customer chatter on sites external to a brand’s site that brands can’t control and that is scary. And to some degree, that fear is well-founded. But really, customers don’t just make stuff up about brands. Their comments are formed by their interactions with that brand and those of their peers. So, even though brands can’t control what customers say, there remains a degree of influence on the dialog. I think the best way to look at it is to use the analogy that the brand (or retailer) is the parent and the customers are teenagers. Parents can’t control what their teenagers do or say when they are not around. The only things parents can do is clearly and emphatically impart to their kids their beliefs and values, set clear boundaries, and be consistent, be consistent, be consistent. Then brands have to trust that their kids have been raised right and then they have to let them go. This practice is easy to say and hard to do, but in an increasingly competitive world it will help brands focus on doing business and learning from their customers, rather than on controlling them.

Pfreemanevans | July 09, 2007, 03:37 PM
Be a Parent to Your Customers

I have been on the ecommerce and direct marketing conference circuit over the last few months and have heard a lot about customers now being in control or “in the driver’s seat” and how this may change how we do business. While I agree that we are in an era of changing relationships between customers and brands, I don’t really believe that most customers what to be in the driver’s seat. What customers want is to be heard. Companies should put them in the passenger’s seat, and let them act as navigator while brands keep their hands firmly on the wheel and their foot on the gas, or brakes.

Also, there is a growing amount of customer chatter on sites external to a brand’s site that brands can’t control and that is scary. And to some degree, that fear is well-founded. But really, customers don’t just make stuff up about brands. Their comments are formed by their interactions with that brand and those of their peers. So, even though brands can’t control what customers say, there remains a degree of influence on the dialog. I think the best way to look at it is to use the analogy that the brand (or retailer) is the parent and the customers are teenagers. Parents can’t control what their teenagers do or say when they are not around. The only things parents can do is clearly and emphatically impart to their kids their beliefs and values, set clear boundaries, and be consistent, be consistent, be consistent. Then brands have to trust that their kids have been raised right and then they have to let them go. This practice is easy to say and hard to do, but in an increasingly competitive world it will help brands focus on doing business and learning from their customers, rather than on controlling them.

Pfreemanevans | July 02, 2007, 02:59 PM
Differential your assortment, or at least your Barbie

This week I went to a very nice event at the revitalized FAO Schwarz store on Fifth Avenue here in NYC. The event promoted the newly launched Barbie shop on the second floor of the store where girls and their parents create their own Barbie look. There is a nifty computer interface with clear directions that prompt girls to select the Barbie or one of her “friends” (only the Blonds are true Barbies, brunettes or those of other ethnicities are “friends”). Then there is a series of fashion and accessory choices that allow the girls to style their own Barbie -- kind of a Build A Bear for the girly set. Once the parents go pay for the doll that the girls design, a receipt with a bar code is given and it takes about 15 minutes for the new doll to be ready. The girl’s name appears on a big flat screen about the register and it is time to scan your receipt and wait for your Barbie to come waltzing down the runway with a big sign next to her saying, “Styled by [insert excited girl’s name here].” And, talk about unbridled enthusiasm; the little girls I saw at the event were literally jumping up and down with glee as they saw their new Barbie coming down the runway. This is a terrific example of how FAO is reinventing itself to offer classic toys in new ways and to provide assortments not found elsewhere. In an increasingly competitive online retail arena, this effort is a lesson to retailers that differentiation will be critical in the coming quarters and years.

Pfreemanevans | June 18, 2007, 09:05 PM
Dot Calm?

The New York Times on Sunday reported that the rate of online sales growth has peaked. This is true and it is as we have expected, and stated, for quite some time. But the way many people seem to read this is that growth has peaked and we will begin to see declines in year over year sales along with falling customer satisfaction. This is not the case. What is true is that the sea-change in behavior of consumers flocking to the internet to start buying is over. It is also true that customer satisfaction remains quite high online and is in fact higher overall than for offline experiences. The key news here that the Times rightly points out is that online retail is entering into a period of maturity where growth will be more organic rather than explosive. That means that the competitive fires will continue to heat up and as we have written in the past, retailers must step up their game in terms of differentiating their product, service and communication offerings. They must also rethink their efforts to drive loyalty, not just frequency, among their customers in order to maintain and grow market share.

Online retail is not over by any means. And if you add in the percent of offline sales that will be influenced by customers researching online, the internet will impact nearly half of all US retail by 2011 - that is more than $1 trillion. That is a whole lot business in my book.

Pfreemanevans | May 03, 2007, 04:43 PM
Boo.com resurrects as travel site.

I can't quite understand why one would bring back a brand name that is synonymous with crash in the travel arena no less.

But having said that, the new Boo is trying to bring user generated content to bear on the online hotel-booking arena. As my colleague, Diane Clarkson, points out in her report: Travel Consumer-Created Content: Employing Online Reviews and Recommendations to Enhance Relevancy
http://www.jupiterresearch.com/bin/item.pl/research:concept/109/id=97429,pos=2/,

travel sites offering consumer reviews of hotel properties have been around for quite some time yet only garnered about 5% traffic from online travel buyers. The new Boo.com offers direct booking in addition to user reviews, which is a convenience, but generally these sites tend to remain of niche appeal. Perhaps that will be fine for Boo.com redux, thus they avoid the massive flameout the original operators experienced.

Pfreemanevans | May 01, 2007, 04:08 PM
Matching Price and Promotion Across Channels

Another shopping anecdote that further emphasizes the complexities of our current multichannel-retailing environment. A friend was shopping online for a big screen TV. As a good analyst, he had done extensive research online and finally zeroed in on the make and model he wanted. He found a good price and free shipping at one of the major multichannel consumer electronics retailers. But, he didn’t buy it online even though the TV was so big he would have to ship it. Being a nice guy, he thought he would go to the store and let a sales associate get a hefty commission on his purchase. Plus he was going to buy a number of ancillary items. In he went only to find out that the store would not match the free shipping offer he could get online. Given the item, this charge was not small expense and my friend left the store and went home to buy the item from another store. It seems that if consumer electronics retailers are willing to match the price of competitors, as most are, they aught to be able to match their own promotions across channels. Online buyers who shop with the same store across multiple channels agree – 48% say they expect to see the same promotions across channels.

Pfreemanevans | April 30, 2007, 05:50 PM
Has a multichannel attitude arrived on the selling floor?

My husband and I were shopping in a Banana Republic looking for trousers for him. He is an odd size and we have regular difficulty finding the right clothes for him. As we feared the store didn’t have his size in stock. But, the sales woman told us that the online store might have our size. I asked if she could look it up for us from the store. She said yes and did so. It turns out the web store did have our size and it was in stock. I asked if the sales woman could order it from the web store right there in the store. She asked her manager who frowned and said she could. Not a very enthusiastic answer, but a yes nevertheless. Then I asked if I would have to pay for shipping since I was in the store and they didn’t have my size. They said I would have to pay. I forgot to ask if they could order the item from the web to ship to store for me to pick up. We decided not to buy and went home trouser-less.

The upshot of this experience for me was overall very, very positive and the store almost saved a sale. Plus, I will remember that the store has this capability and will be more likely to go ask for my husband’s odd size next time rather than being disappointed and walking out. And, I will be more likely to try the website in the future now that we know they have my husband’s size. The tools to help a customer across channels are in place at Banana Republic. and the store staff is helpful. But when it comes to actually placing an order via the web, in store there is hesitation on both sides -- I don't want to pay to have something shipped if I was in the store and the manager clearly wasn't that interested in placing a web order for me. It seems likely that the old bugaboos of organization and compensation might still be standing in the way of fully servicing the customer. Was the store manager concerned that she would not get credit for the sale? Did she not want the service hassle if I didn't get the order on time once she placed it? Hard to say, but it seems like the easy part is done, now we need focus on herding the store cats to be more on board with a corporate multichannel vision. Sounds like retail as usual....

Pfreemanevans | April 11, 2007, 08:08 PM
Retail Community Sites: A sink or swim proposition for retailers

In an effort to capitalize on the current growth of “social” sites online, Lands’ End launched a site that focuses on swimwear and features places where people can post their stories of wearing swimsuits. It seems like some people might share that their suit fit and they felt good in it. But will they share that they wore it a second time, or will they buy another next week, and the next week, etc. For people to share on an ongoing basis - not just one off – the content has to be a compelling, repeat topic. And, from the content user perspective, I wonder how often an individual will return to a swimwear community site and how interested they might be about how a woman decides she doesn't care so much about her swimsuit look because she is surrounded by lots of cute frolicking kids and no one is looking at her.

Yes fit is a very, very difficult issue to solve - particularly acute in swim- and I think the tools are good and the advice and the live help are all good. They take advice further by recommending suit styles by body type. But this is an information push more than a community pull; a branding effort. This seems more like a forum for Lands' End to post customer feedback than it does a place where people are going to engage on an ongoing basis. And, wouldn’t it make sense to have this information right on the product detail pages along with sort-able reviews where a customer is trying to decide what suit to buy? Perhaps live interaction forums where suit buyers can share directly how the item they bought REALLY fits might be of value here. Also, maybe Lands’ End would want to solicit specific fit comments from those customers who are willing to participate in the community so that the one key pain point can be more specifically addressed.

Pfreemanevans | December 11, 2006, 04:41 PM
Today Is The Big Day For Online Sales, One Week Before Ground Shipping Cut Off Dates.

If last year is any indication, we may see peak online holiday sales volume today. Typically, last Monday and today have been the heaviest sales days for online retailers. Makes sense because next Monday is the most common ground shipping cut off date among retailers, according to a recent Jupiter Research webtrack of 47 top retail websites. But, ground cut off dates start as early as the 14th at some retailers. Though 37 percent of online buyers say they will still buy online after ground deadlines, and that’s a big opportunity, 44 percent say they will not. So now is the time for online retailers to make hay. Only 66 percent of the retailers reviewed posted their shipping cut off dates, and only 17 percent had a link to their deadline information on the home page. Customers may have to dig in the customer service links for the information even if it is not listed on the home page. This lack of disclosure is a little surprising because 55 percent of consumers who say that seeing cut off dates helps them to plan their purchases earlier. Kmart, L.L. Bean and Sears all had nice holiday shipping guide links and clear information. The most common dates for express shipping are: December 20th for two-day, and December 21st for overnight.

Pfreemanevans | December 07, 2006, 09:23 PM
Crashing Websites? Is this 1999 again?

Since Thanksgiving, Overstock.com, Macys.com, Wal-Mart.com, cybermonday.com and Amazon.com, to name a few biggies have all had site slowdown issues. One would think that after 10 years of online selling retailers could plan for the traffic they are getting even at peak times. Well, in fact retailers are planning for these spikes in traffic. The problem is that no CFO or CEO of an Internet business would rightly allow a relatively mature online retailer to plan for an eight-fold increase in traffic. The response to the door-buster promotions online retailers are promoting this year, many for the first time, has been extraordinary. In fact, Patrick Byrne, CEO of Overstock.com, said, "Consumer response to the promotion was beyond anything we imagined, and we had a big imagination." The same has been true at each of these retailers. So what is causing these heavy traffic days? Certainly media and marketing hype has something to do with it. But these aspects don’t totally account for such dramatic gains. The answer seems to lie in different places for different retailers. According to Hitwise traffic share data, Wal-Mart.com experienced a huge spike in traffic on November 23rd. So it looks like Wal-Mart had a huge influx of customers looking for big offline deals for Black Friday. The other retailers, Overstock, Amazon.com, Macys.com all had increases in traffic over the last three weeks, but no giant spike in unique visitors like Wal-Mart. This data says to me that these retailers had a great number of the same customers constantly pinging their sites to be first “in-line” when the promoted deals went live. Customers are moving their offline waiting behavior to online and instead of filling up the parking lot or bruising their fellow shoppers offline, they are “waiting in line” online and slowing down or crashing the sites a bit.