Is Microsoft becoming less relevant? No

Michael Gartenberg | July 23, 2003, 07:06 AM

Scoble talks about whether Microsoft will be relevant in the future and critiques Joi Ito's comments. "Microsoft will continue to dominate the desktop, but it will become less relevant as consumer electronics companies embrace open standards and use Internet web services and applications to make consumer electronics devices rich with content."

I'll just add that Robert is correct (and that has nothing to do with the fact that he works for MSFT, in fact probably the opposite) and Joi misses some key points.

First, this is an old argument. For the last ten years I have heard that the PC is dead and will be replaced by ___ (fill in the blank here yourself, Java, Network Computers, STBs, PDAs, Cellphones, Internet Appliances, Web Browsers, etc…). In fact, this is simply not true and I last wrote about it in depth nearly three years ago, you can read it here.

Second, consumer electronics companies are NOT embracing open standards as Joi says, in fact just the opposite. CE vendors want you locked into their standards and want to create interoperability with their devices not with their competition. Can anyone out there say Memory Stick?

We live in a world that is rapidly progressing towards the notion of digital ubiquity. A world of multiple devices, including and beyond the PC that will allow access to relevant contextual information anytime and anywhere. All research shows that consumers are accepting of more than one device (in fact, up to three devices) so there’s simply no logic for the single device convergence discussion (which is how the argument that the PC is dead usually starts). It’s also important to remember that the PC is not a stagnant platform and it too has constantly evolved. Today my PC is also my repository for everything I have ever written, all the photos I have taken in the last eight years, my entire music collection and where I store recorded TV content. I don’t think my cell phone is even remotely up to the task.

The combination of the continued evolution and relevance of the PC combined with Microsoft’s entry into new information device markets means that the folks in Redmond are not likely to wane in relevance or influence in the near term. Will Microsoft dominate those markets as they have the desktop? Probably not but they will likely be a strong player amongst many and that leveraged with the ties back to the PC mean that they if anything will become more important over time and not less.