Scoble disagrees with my prior comments about Longhorn adoption. Robert, I don't think that we're talking about no future in Software, in fact, I think that's where the innovation is (and the money as well - every investment I did as a VC was in software for the most part). the issue is of whether Longhorn and OS in general will make users want to upgrade from a platform that's "good enough". We also talk to non-geeks... perhaps even a few more than most people in the course of our research and everything points to Longhorn having some huge obstacles. A flashier UI won't do it (or we would all be using Panther) and the need to upgrade all my hardware is not appealing for average consumers who expect (and can get) a longer shelf life from their PCS. I'd like to think ease of use and a better experience will work, but even in the days when there really was a major difference in the user experience between Mac OS and DOS/Win, most of the world took DOS/Win as it was good enough. I don't doubt Longhorn will be a success, PC replacement cycles for business and Microsoft's position with OEMs will ensure that. A radical new change for users to flock to? I don't see it. There were very good reasons to adopt WIn 95, 98, 20000 and XP. None of them apply to Longhorn… so far.

But, I know a lot of people think it's hopeless. That software is dead. That innovation can't come from this industry anymore and that we're all destined to have our jobs turned into commodities and shipped overseas. You can see the cynicism in the comment threads here.

The heck with that. The next few years are gonna see more change in computing than the past 10. But, let's meet in 2005 and see how it's going, OK?

I talk to average users and they are ready for a new kind of system. One with a different user interface. One that helps them find their files. One that takes advantage of the processor power and GPU power and hard drive space and new technologies (like LCDs you can write on).

The more "non geek" users I meet, the more excited I am. How about you?

[The Scobleizer Weblog]