Is Google the next Netscape? I don't think so.

Michael Gartenberg | April 30, 2004, 08:34 AM

There's a lot of comparisons these days about Google and Netscape. Like Netscape, Google has changed the way we use and interact with the Internet. Like Netscape in 1995, Google is poised for an IPO that will likely start a new boom in Internet related technologies. Like Netscape, Google is firmly in the sights of Microsoft who now has designs on paid search. There's some good reasons for this. Paid search is enormously profitable and the leverage is amazing. The paid search ream in Redmond probably carries more revenues on a per capita basis than almost any other team. So is Google ripe to be Netscaped? (interesting how both Google and Netscape have become verbs :) ) While there are some superficial similarities, there are also a lot of differences. First, is Google's attitude. Google is a far different company than Netscape and has a different leadership style. We don't hear Google execs, in the style of Marc Andreeson, strutting about and proclaiming Windows is a collection of device drivers whose only purpose is to run Google. Google is not positioning itself as a direct competitive threat to the Windows franchise and that makes a big difference. Second, we're dealing with a post-trial Microsoft that is under the microscope. We're not going to see any e-mails from Redmond that will talk about "cutting off Google's air-supply". Finally, not every market that Microsoft has designs on does it become the dominant player. Despite lots of efforts and lots of money, Microsoft does not rule the PDA space, the console video game space, e-books, or media players. Integrating local search into Longhorn will be of no long term competitive threat as long as Google isn't locked out (and the likelihood of post trial MSFT doing that is nil.) Bottom line, Microsoft can compete in the marketplace for search (although it will need some far more compelling technology than it has today) but even if it's on par with Google, that won't be enough to get folks to switch. Unless someone can come up with something an order of magnitude better than what Google offers (and of course, they are continuing to innovate) it's likely we're going to see Google increase in importance over time and not decrease.