Will Web 2.0 kill Windows?

Michael Gartenberg | November 09, 2005, 12:15 PM

Microsoft has long maintained a dominant position with Windows, to the point that the technology has achieved a level of non-substitutable infrastructure, making it difficult if not impossible to replace. Like all Non-substitutable infrastructure technologies Windows has the following characteristics:

• High switching costs
• Total or near-total standardization within an organization
• Strong third-party/vendor support
• Functions as underlying technology for other services/applications

However, that hadn't stopped folks from trying and over the last ten years various technologies have all been called the one that would kill Windows. Here are just a few of my favorite.

The Web
Internet appliances
Set Top Boxes
Netscape
Java
Network Computers
Network Computers running Java via Netscape
Cell phones
Cell phones running Java
Linux
Linux Cell phones with Java
Web 2.0

Does this sound familiar?

Despite Microsoft's successful responses to pseudo-challengers such as Linux, Network Computing and Java, new technologies will emerge that may ultimately displace the Windows. It's not clear that Web 2.0 is that technology. Here are some attributes of technology Microsoft should be concerned about.

1. Must offer visible and demonstrable value and differentiation over Windows that can be directly exploited by end users. One reason CDs replaced the LsP so quickly, was that end-users were able to clearly HEAR the difference between the two technologies.

2. Must offer clear economic benefit to software vendors. Again, in the CD analogy, music companies, had a clear benefit to shift to the new format since the cost of a CD was much higher than LP or cassette and has remained that way to date.

3. Must offer clear economic benefit to hardware vendors. If conditions one and two are met, hardware vendors must have strong incentive to build new systems to take advantage of new technology and drive upgrade cycles. Again, CD hardware vendors were very much behind the new audio technology and had no fears of systems cannibalizing existing sales.

Despite the hype that Web 2.0, think twice about how it might displace Windows. Even if Ray Ozzie and Bill Gates tell you otherwise.