Is the iPhone a Success or Flop?

Michael Gartenberg | July 24, 2007, 01:09 PM

Lots of chatter today about the number of iPhone activations over the first two days of launch with AT&T reporting 146,000 iPhone activations over that time period. Some folks are saying that Apple missed the mark and perhaps the iPhone isn' a success. Really?

1. It's hard for Apple to have missed a target number when they gave none. What folks are talking about are some analysts somewhat wild expectations. Piper Jaffrey initially estimated 200,00 would be sold. Monday after the launch, they raised the number to 500,000 (for no apparent reason). Other folks upped them reporting as high as 700,000. Well, if you called for 700,00, you were wrong but that doesn't mean Apple missed anything. There's a reason why making these types of calls is risky, this is what happens when you're wrong.

2. 146,000 is only the number of activations over the first two days. Some folks delayed for a bit and others bought over the web directly from Apple so the number is likely higher in terms of units sold. We'll likely know more tomorrow.

3. Selling 146,000 of anything at a $600 price tag that also requires a hefty monthly service fee and perhaps a change in network is impressive IMHO. A good chunk of those came from other carriers which is important as well.

4. None of the above matters. The first two days mean nothing in the overall life of the product and the overall success of the iPhone won't rest on how well this particular model does. The launch of the iPhone was the first move in what is likely to be a long game for Apple, trying to gauge the overall success based on two days of incomplete data is silly.