Posts by Thomas Husson from February 2006

Thomas Husson | February 28, 2006, 05:07 PM
Top 10 phones in Telia Stores

Telia, part of Telia Sonera, has released the best selling handsets in its stores in Sweden. Here it goes for February:

1 1 Nokia 5140i SP + K + R
2 New Sony Ericsson Z520i SP + K + @ + MP3+R
3 3 Sony Ericsson W800i SP + K + @ + MP3
4 2 Sony Ericsson K750i SP + K + @ + MP3
5 4 Nokia 3120 SP + R
6 5 Sony Ericsson J300i SP + R
7 9 Sony Ericsson K700i SP + K + @ + MP3
8 6 Samsung SGH-X640 SP + K + R
9 New Sony Ericsson W900i SP + K + @ + MP3 +3G
10 New Sony Ericsson Z300i SP + R

Not surprisingly in the home of Sony Ericsson, 7 out of 10 handsets are SE.

What really strikes me is the excellent performance of music phones and particularly of Walkman phones.

Interestingly, only one of them is 3G-enabled.

I haven't seen any figures on the number of songs downloaded from a mobile music store, but I think I now why...

Thomas Husson | February 16, 2006, 10:32 AM
Back from 3GSM's pilgrimage

Pilgrims moved from Cannes to Barcelona and the congress growing attendance reflects several trends in the industry: larger presence of new entrants from Internet and media companies (MTV 1st) to fixed telecom suppliers (Cisco, Lucent,...), mobile operators being more discreet (T-Mobile and Orange's booth were large but outside the main conference Hall), US companies increasingly investing the show (with typical American practices from Action Engine's cheerleaders to C-Boss babes), adult companies having a "porn" (sorry I meant "erotic") corner, and women still missing in the industry (Julie you should definitely come over there) with a congress organized each year during Valentine's day.

This year I had a press pass and I can tell you journalists are doing a tough job filtering the information (I now receive 200 PR per day!) when they can actually receive e-mails (there was not enough electricity power in the press room and for several stands, that's the limit for a telecom congress!).

To be exhaustive, clik here to see all the news !

Here's a wrap-up of 3 issues dominating the congress this year:

1) Mobile TV : "it should not be overhyped"

As expected (see my previous post here), it was the hottest topic at the summit. Rene Oberman, T-mobile's CEO, had a nice comment during its press conference: "I don't think we should overhype mobile TV". Good thing to hear among all the confusion around mobile broadcasting technologies. Nokia and Sony Ericsson announced their intention to work together to promote DVB-H interoperability. Samsung unveiled the SGH-P900, Europe's first T-DMB phone while also backing DVB-H and MediaFLo (sounds like a cautious but realistic approach for a handset manufacturer). LG has the same approach. Virgin Mobile will launch a mobile TV offer based on DAB in the UK, in partnership with Microsoft and BT. BT's offer, Movio, will then be available on a wholesale basis to all carriers in the UK. Given the lack of UHF spectrum (on which DVB-H is based), this sounds like a 1st mover advantage. A mobile broadcasting service will also be available in Germany for the Football World Cup, but that's no breaking news. The question will remain a political issue: the Northern German "Lander" promote DVB-H while Bavaria is more likely to promote DMB. Alcatel promoted its Satellite solution (see the full white paper here): interesting to deliver TV for the mass-market on a nationwide basis but requires several carriers to adopt the technology to share the satellite infrastructure costs. The most interesting announcement was however that of Orange and IP Wireless: the mobile operator will launch a trial on its unpaired TDD spectrum. In other words, on 3G. Why would they spend new billions and lose control on the value chain if current assets can be fully exploited ?

2) Mobile Broadband and VoIP: is 3G already over ?

A lot of hype around HSDPA (known as 3.5G) again. Yes, Samsung will be the first to launch an HSDPA handset (the SGH-Z560, up to 1.8Mbps, expected in Q2 2006). Yes, T-mobile will probably be the first to launch HSDPA, even though it is already available on...the Isle of Man (on a data card offered by O2). Many other players will follow since it is "only" a software evolution leading to faster downlink speeds for customers. But no, 2006 will not be the year of HSDPA. As for 3G, networks will probably be ready before handsets and the service will mainly be available with data cards for laptops with average speeds at 700kbits far from the theoritical 14.4Mbit/s. HSDPA is not yet "mobile DSL".

This year again, the show was significantly led by technology acronyms. Who will won the 4G battle ? Japanese NTT DoCoMo with Korean and Chinese partners promoting VSF-Spread OFDM, US Qualcomm promoting its proprierary Flarion solution, Wimax (and its Korean version, Wibro, to be introduced in Italy with TIM) ? Let's be honest. This will be the new standard war but it is too early to say. DoCoMo intends to launch only by 2010. Many do acknowledge the concept is not finalized yet and call it 3.9G or LTE (Long Term Evolution). It speaks for itself. The question remains: which services will the consumer use : download a movie from a mobile P2P network on their mobile phones ? Yes it will probably be a reality one day but let's go step by step. Let's sell 3G first. Qualcomm expects 85M 3G devices in 2006 while Nokia is more bullish intending to have a market share of 40% out of 100M 3G devices. That's a significant number but it is only below 15% of the total shipments expected in 2006. Nokia will only launch its first UMA device next year allowing VoIP calls over WiFi networks. Skype is only partnering with Hutchinson not with a major global operator. VoIP will become mobile and could even become an opportunity for carriers, but so far quality is probably not there and voice call prices are going down anyway. There is still a huge work to be done on user interfaces and simplicity for the end-user. Interestingly, Hamid Akhavan (T-Mobile's CTO) presented a slide on the number of remoted device updates, claiming to have updated over-the-air 300K devices, mainly for MMS and data services configuration. This is not as glamour as mobile TV but this is the reality many consumers face. Having worked for a mobile operator, I can tell you this is the nightmare of many CRM project managers...

3) Mobile Search: beyond the Vodafone/Google deal

After the Motorola agreement and the T-Mobile deal, Vodafone will offer a mobile search solution for Vodafone. Consumers are looking for strong brands they trust in the Internet world. I wonder to which extent Google's results in the mobile space are more relevant than that of white-label mobile companies such as JumpTap, Infospace, Enrique or Exalead. Apparently, MSN prefers to leverage its messaging branded services (MSN Messenger and Hotmail) and invest on the technology side for mobile search. Microsoft just announced the acquisition of the French MotionBridge (a firm already working for 02 and Orange). Interesting to see which strategy will pay in the long run.

Thomas Husson | February 11, 2006, 04:39 PM
3GSM in Barcelona

Just had a break in Egypt before diving in the wireless world for the 3GSM.

Interestingly, there are 2 main mobile companies : Vodafone Egypt and MobileNil, totalizing 13 M subscribers, out of a population of 75M. There is still a huge room for growth. I was really impressed by the social status associated with mobile phones in this country. Brand new Vodafone shops, TV commercials for Nokia, LG...

But back to 3GSM. Given the number of PR I received, no doubt mobile TV will be at the centerpiece of many announcements. Jupiter will soon publish a new report on mobile TV. Watch this space for more info.

If you want to get in touch at 3GSM, drop me a line at thusson@jupitermedia.com or send me an SMS at 33 6 62 31 36 40.

Thomas Husson | February 02, 2006, 05:59 PM
Mobile TV: hype or reality?

I regularly hear comments and articles saying mobile Tv is a reality. Not really sure what people mean by that.

Does that mean a commercial service is available? Well...T-mobile launched n-tv at the end of December 2003 and Telecom Italia has been a pioneer on 2.5G for a while.

Is it because operators are launching mobile TV over 3G networks? Well...Most carriers have done so now. And yes it is a customer acqusition tool rather than a revenue stream. So what's new ?

The main question nowadays is which standard will win the war: DVB-H, MediaFlo, DMB? Anticipating that 3G networks are not economically designed to support mass-market broadcasting, operators will have no choice but to switch to a dedicated broadcast technology.

Not a single day without PR, announcements and new trials or new technologies...No doubt mobile Tv will be one of the major attractions at 3GSM. Simply because it is easier to sell than HSDPA, IMS, 3D Games or even music. Simply beacuse it is a strategic issue for broadcasters and carriers to announce they have an opportunity to diversify their revenues and create a new market.

Because mobile TV combines two of the most successful consumer products, most people tend to assume it is necessary a mass market service. Is that so obvious ?

Let's go step by step:

- mobile TV is a nascent market, built by mobile operators to sell 3G
- adoption rate is so far extremly dependant on the 3G installed base
- the current time spent watching TV (2 minutes / session) is nothing but a show-off service. Look I have live TV on my mobile!
- Japan and Korea are not that advanced market as far as mobile TV is concerned. Yes, S-DMB is available since June 2005 but it has only reached 300,000 subscribers in 6 months. Yes, T-DMB is available since December 2005, but it is offered for free and consequently mobile operators are not really backing the project due to the lack of a sustainable business model.
- when it will reach critical mass, 3G will not be the ideal solution if many customers want to watch the same live content simultaneously.
- mobile operators have invested billions in 3G. Do you think they will so easily say to their shareholders: let's build a new network from scratch? My take is that MBMS is the natural next step since it allows carriers to use their existing infrastructure and that the spectrum is available.

I am not saying they should use this technology. I am only saying they should try it, because we are at a trial stage. Ericsson and IP Wireless (on the TDD spectrum) are pushing it. Alcatel is now promoting a satellite-base mobile TV solution as well.

There is no rush to decide which technology to use. Anyway, it is just another standard war. As always, technology is not really the issue. The real question is about the business model. Which technology is likely to generate volumes and consequently economies of scale on a worldwide basis?

When Verizon announced they would partner with MediaFlo, many insiders thought DVB-H was dead in the US. Well, a couple of weeks later Intel, Nokia, Motorola, TI and Modeo (ex Crown Castle) announced they would form a partnership to "foster growth of Mobile TV and Accelerate DVB-H Deployment in North America".

Just be patient. Consumer demand is there but it is not as significant as claimed in trials and in the press. Mass-market is far from being a reality.

I attended an interesting conference on mobile TV (held by Osney Media in London two weeks ago). One of the speakers said that there is a huge opportunity for Business Models based on advertisement. He mentionned the fact that during the time requested to switch from one channel to another one, advertisers could promote new advertsing formats. The idea sounded compelling. The only thing I am worried about is that consumers won't watch TV if they have to wait to switch channels...