Mobile TV: hype or reality?

Thomas Husson | February 02, 2006, 05:59 PM

I regularly hear comments and articles saying mobile Tv is a reality. Not really sure what people mean by that.

Does that mean a commercial service is available? Well...T-mobile launched n-tv at the end of December 2003 and Telecom Italia has been a pioneer on 2.5G for a while.

Is it because operators are launching mobile TV over 3G networks? Well...Most carriers have done so now. And yes it is a customer acqusition tool rather than a revenue stream. So what's new ?

The main question nowadays is which standard will win the war: DVB-H, MediaFlo, DMB? Anticipating that 3G networks are not economically designed to support mass-market broadcasting, operators will have no choice but to switch to a dedicated broadcast technology.

Not a single day without PR, announcements and new trials or new technologies...No doubt mobile Tv will be one of the major attractions at 3GSM. Simply because it is easier to sell than HSDPA, IMS, 3D Games or even music. Simply beacuse it is a strategic issue for broadcasters and carriers to announce they have an opportunity to diversify their revenues and create a new market.

Because mobile TV combines two of the most successful consumer products, most people tend to assume it is necessary a mass market service. Is that so obvious ?

Let's go step by step:

- mobile TV is a nascent market, built by mobile operators to sell 3G
- adoption rate is so far extremly dependant on the 3G installed base
- the current time spent watching TV (2 minutes / session) is nothing but a show-off service. Look I have live TV on my mobile!
- Japan and Korea are not that advanced market as far as mobile TV is concerned. Yes, S-DMB is available since June 2005 but it has only reached 300,000 subscribers in 6 months. Yes, T-DMB is available since December 2005, but it is offered for free and consequently mobile operators are not really backing the project due to the lack of a sustainable business model.
- when it will reach critical mass, 3G will not be the ideal solution if many customers want to watch the same live content simultaneously.
- mobile operators have invested billions in 3G. Do you think they will so easily say to their shareholders: let's build a new network from scratch? My take is that MBMS is the natural next step since it allows carriers to use their existing infrastructure and that the spectrum is available.

I am not saying they should use this technology. I am only saying they should try it, because we are at a trial stage. Ericsson and IP Wireless (on the TDD spectrum) are pushing it. Alcatel is now promoting a satellite-base mobile TV solution as well.

There is no rush to decide which technology to use. Anyway, it is just another standard war. As always, technology is not really the issue. The real question is about the business model. Which technology is likely to generate volumes and consequently economies of scale on a worldwide basis?

When Verizon announced they would partner with MediaFlo, many insiders thought DVB-H was dead in the US. Well, a couple of weeks later Intel, Nokia, Motorola, TI and Modeo (ex Crown Castle) announced they would form a partnership to "foster growth of Mobile TV and Accelerate DVB-H Deployment in North America".

Just be patient. Consumer demand is there but it is not as significant as claimed in trials and in the press. Mass-market is far from being a reality.

I attended an interesting conference on mobile TV (held by Osney Media in London two weeks ago). One of the speakers said that there is a huge opportunity for Business Models based on advertisement. He mentionned the fact that during the time requested to switch from one channel to another one, advertisers could promote new advertsing formats. The idea sounded compelling. The only thing I am worried about is that consumers won't watch TV if they have to wait to switch channels...