10 mobile myths & fallacies

Thomas Husson | January 17, 2007, 02:49 AM

1) There are more phones than individuals since the penetration rate is >> 100% in many countries. For sure, but how many are active users, how many are business users who do not pay for the bill…? Let’s start looking at individuals not virtual figures. Did you know by the way that the mobile penetration rate in Japan is below 80%?

2) SMS is bound to disappear. Well, yes it will decline in terms of revenues but it is definitely here to stay.

3) Mobile IM will totally cannibalize SMS. This is only partly true for long and instant text messages (even though most of the traffic is mobile <=> PC today), but at the end of the day, boundaries between the two services will be blurred once presence will be available on mobile IP networks.

4) MMS is dead. It has been promoted by mobile operators at a time when critical mass of handsets and interoperability were not available. So it is only going to kick off. Worth having a look at figures in Norway to be convinced.

5) Mobile e-mail is the next big thing. Given the success of the likes of Blackberry, many believe it will represent a huge market for consumers. I would just like to know how many push e-mail users are paying for their own bills and how many consumers cannot wait until the end of the day to discover who spammed their inboxes? I am not saying there are no opportunities. On the contrary, but they are more likely to be comparatively more limited than for business users.

6) Mobile music is generating billions of euros. If you include ringtones, that’s even not the case for the European market. Despite a huge growth in full-track music downloads, this will take some time before digital sales (including online) represents more than 30% of the total music market as regularly explained by my colleague Mark Mulligan

7) 3D games are a must have. It is incredible how much you hear from 3D technology and massive multiplayer games from vendors and at the same time how much the market is asking for simple casual games.

8) Mobile data revenues are not significant for carriers. If you include SMS and data charges for browsing and downloading content, this is still a good 15-25% depending on operators and countries.

9) In the long term, mobile is a media that will replace traditional media. Have newspapers disappeared following the introduction of radio? Has radio disappeared following the introduction of TV? No, they have all evolved and are all interconnected.

10) You will only carry a mobile phone with you. The most often quoted example is that you always carry 3 things with you all the time: your keys, your wallet and your mobile phone. Since mobile payments and biometry embedded in mobile phones are emerging, let’s have everything in one device. Those who are advocating such a trend are discussing a very very long future and forecasting the decline of women purses…