Nostalgia

Thomas Husson | November 22, 2007, 04:30 PM

I recently came back in the small town where I spent my childhood. 2 minutes from my house, there used to be a fixed call box. As most of them, they have simply disappeared. I used to call friends from there when I wanted to be untroubled. I also remember the good old times when you had to introduce yourself to your parents' friends before asking them to talk to their kids. Obviously, with personal / mobile phones, the relationships between teens and their parents as well as their peers has evolved...This was not a long time ago, only in the mid 80s.

I also remember that initially (in the mid 90s) mobile phones were perceived as devices for the elite and that it was not well accepted in public. Many consumers were reacting negatively, almost saying "why would I need a mobile phone"? Eventually, we all know what happened. Mobile telephony is the fastest ever technology to be spread so massively. In less than 15 years, it has reached around 80% of individuals. This is one of the reasons why many stakeholders have high expectations regarding the uptake of mobile media.

It is quite funny to observe people here while commuting. Those watching mobile live TV in the bus, playing mobile games in the tube, carrying markedly high-end devices (the first iPhones) and so on. It is not that uncommon but still you can feel that many wonder "why would I use a mobile for something else than voice/text?". I can do this at home.

It is difficult to say when those new multimedia services will be really mainstream if ever. However, if you assume that you have today the same percentage of consumers being interested in mobile media than you had for mobile voice in the 90s, then we'll have to wait at least another decade. Not to say that mobile services won't take up and evolve dramatically in the next 5 years, all the more as many parameters need to be taken into account, but mass-market adoption is probably still far away.

We are currently in the process of updating our mobile forecast for Europe until 2012. So, if you want to share your views, please drop me a line.