My 2008 predictions

Thomas Husson | January 03, 2008, 10:05 AM

I quite like Samuel Johnson's quote: "the vanity of being trusted with a secret is often the prime motive to disclose it" as mentionned by my colleague Michael Gartenberg. The idea here is not to disclose anything unofficial but simply to highlight a couple of key trends in the mobile space. As you can read from my colleague, this is only my very personal view and should not be considered as a Jupiter Research official prediction. We have a collective approach for this and the results are anyway only available to clients.

1- New entrants in the mobile space won't impact the market significantly but highlight the evolution of the mobile ecosystem

Apple will probably launch one or several new mobile phones. Don't misunderstand me: the iPhone is the most compelling mobile phone I have tried so far and it may well reach or even exceed its 10M 2008 target but even if it does, it won't change the game in a volume industry. However, it might be another story in the high-end segment (total Blackberry subscriber account base stands at 12M worldwide as of end q3 2007), but the disruption is essentially based on its impact on business models and the ecosytem (a new entrant obtaining a revenue share from operators). Given the time needed to develop a new phone (from the conception to the high-street stores), I think real answers to the iPhone will only be made available in S2 2008. Even Google's Android plans won't really change the game because of a lack of volumes. However, mobile operators will increasingly have to share revenues with Internet and media players but also with handset manufacturers launching their own services.

2- Mobile Technology (Wimax, LTE / 4G, mobile broadcasting) will continue to be overhyped but won't impact the market anytime soon

Long Term Evolution, doesn't the name speak for itself?

Wimax. Yes, there will be auctions in several European countries in the 2.6Ghz band and there might be a demonstration of a Wimax device in Barcelona, but no it won't mean much in Europe neither in 2008, nor in 2009 and not even in 2010! It might well be a different story in developing countries lagging a fixed infrastructure but the business case here is different for Western Europe.

For mobile TV, as in 2006 and 2007, many expect an uptake with live sport events (such as UEFA in Austria and Switzerland or the Summer Olympics in China). I don't think it will be the case. For one simple reason: sport events are social events you want to share with friends on the largest screen possible in a pub or at home. The case might be different for the Summer Olympics due to the time difference, but to be frank, do you really want to pay a few euros per month to watch darts, gymnastics and to know who will come first in the hammer??
I am not saying it is not a great opportunity to market the service and to increasingly demonstrate that live and VOD, broadcast and unicast are complementary offerings that should stop being opposed as such.

3- Mature Internet trends will continue to be translated in the mobile space, usage will be unleashed among early adopters

VoIP, IM interoperability, long-tail, user-generated content, widgets, RSS feeds, ad-funded business models...have already started to migrate from the online to the mobile world. However, the latter one is not as mature to say the least and the experience truly differs. The "magic square" (compelling multimedia devices, enhanced networks such as HSPA, all you can eat data plans and strong Internet brands) will unleash use but one should bear in mind that few customers will be able to enjoy this experience. Mobile social networking sounds promising since phones are communication tools and that the main reasons why Internet users visit social networking sites is to communicate with friends or to make new friends.

4- Mobile Advertising will enter a disillusionment phase before the end of 2008

After high expectations and as for any new medium, mobile media sellers will realize that advertisers are slow to react to changing consumer behavior, that they want to be able to quantify and qualify audience with independent measurement tools to know their ROI, and that they will begin to find CPM rates too high. However, it is a sign of maturity and does not mean there are no significant opportunities as explained in our brand new survey "mobile advertising in Europe: achieving search and display revenues in the long term". However, in the next 2/3 years the market will go through a standardization and education phase.

5- Mobile "Utilities" will start emerging

Mobile banking, mobile payments, mobile ticketing, mobile location-based services...are emerging services (defined here as "utilities", still looking for a better word) that will start moving from a trial or a niche phase to slowly become part of our daily lives. This will obviously not happen neither in one day not in one year but will gain some traction in 2008.