Grapevine

Thomas Husson | April 14, 2008, 03:06 PM

I received a couple of e-mails from contacts in the music industry saying our latest report on mobile music sounded a bit pessimistic. I then discovered a couple of headlines from selected blogs saying "mobile music does not interest anyone"...which was the translation of another blog "a majority of consumers not interested in mobile music"...
However the vast majority of people aren’t interested in most things, all the more if they have to pay for it. It does not prevent most stakeholders to include music as a key component in their strategies.

To undserstand where such a vague headline came from, I decided to go to the source of the information and read the report of my US colleague whose key finding simply states "Few subscribers are storing and listening to full-track songs on their cell phones. Music providers and carriers must offer a more attractive value proposition to drive greater adoption or risk staying on the fringe of the portable music business".

It seems to me innovation really comes from new business models today as stated by my colleague Mark Mulligan here.

I could say the same thing for most mobile services. As often in the mobile industry, the question is not if but when and how much? If I say mobile TV will not be mass market anytime soon (at least not before 3-5 years), people may consider you are pessimistic.
If you say, mobile TV is a niche market today, many people may look at you saying you are not taking into account "tremendous" successes in Japan, South Korea and Italy. But reality and facts are there in most European countries. If reported correctly by Reuters, even Nokia's spokespersons admit it.

The tricky question is thus: "how do you transition from a niche audience to an early majority and how to define realistic expectations?". How do you move from a supply-side economy to a one driven by consumer demand?