Posts by Thomas Husson from July 09, 2008

Thomas Husson | July 09, 2008, 06:51 PM
Stop the hype with Mobile Wimax

The first time I really discovered Mobile Wimax was in 2004 when I attended a conference called "Wifi on steroids". This was 4 years ago.

2 years ago at 3GSM, it was viewed as a potential threat to 3G.

At this year's Mobile World Congress, the debate was more about Wimax being an alternative or even a complement to LTE.

So I am not sure I understand all the hype around Mobile Wimax.

Yes, there might be a case in the US (see my colleague's report here). Yes, I have followed the press with the never-ending story on Sprint / Clearwire and more recently about Intel / Google ambitions. Yes, I know that the rationale is that in developing countries with very limited fixed infrastructures and no 3G networks, it might be an opportunity and that it will bring costs down, particularly if volumes are there with large countries such as India.

Yes, I know that Clearwire has several licenses in Europe. I have also read the press saying that a network was live in the Netherlands, that Free (the second largest ISP in France) and Bollore may well be discussing with Google, Intel and some investment funds.

But I still don't buy that Wimax will play a significant role in the next 2-3 years in Western Europe.

- fixed Wimax may be a niche opportunity as a DSL substitute in some regions and mobile Wimax has probably a role to play for some specific segments such as mobile broadband (with embedded Wimax in laptops) but it will not compete with HSPA in the short term

- Indeed, HSPA is strongly supported by the industry and by operators in particular.

- Where are the Wimax phones?

- Many operators that had planned to launch have delayed or postponed their launches due to standardization and certification issues

- Many Wimax licenses prohibit mobile usage

So, if some alternative operators (e.g. Free) fail to obtain 3G spectrum and have enough money to invest beyond Fiber, this might be an alternative. But at this stage, it seems to me the Wimax opportunity is more likely to happen in America, AsiaPac or Africa.

So, in a nutshell, there is way too much hype about Mobile Wimax in Western Europe. Might well be a component of 4G in the next decade but I doubt it can achieve more before 2010.