2008-05-16T08:27:15Z tag:weblogs.jupiterresearch.com,2008:/analysts/husson/16 Movable Type Copyright (c) 2008, Thomas Husson 2008-05-16T08:27:15Z 2008-05-16T07:58:00Z tag:weblogs.jupiterresearch.com,2008:/analysts/husson/16.9838 2008-05-16T07:58:00Z

Orange just announced a new agreement with Apple to bring the iPhone to Orange customers in 7 European countries (Austria, Belgium, Poland, Portugal, Romania, Slovakia, Switzerland) but also in Egypt, Jordan, and Orange's African markets later this year. Just 2-3 observations in line with my previous comments on Vodafone's recent...

Thomas Husson Wireless Orange just announced a new agreement with Apple to bring the iPhone to Orange customers in 7 European countries (Austria, Belgium, Poland, Portugal, Romania, Slovakia, Switzerland) but also in Egypt, Jordan, and Orange's African markets later this year. Just 2-3 observations in line with my previous comments on Vodafone's recent announcement or with Singtel's announcement (the operator is to sell the iPhone in 4 Asian countries: Singapore, Philippines, Australia and India). - No details are given in the PR but it is now clear that Apple is now embracing a more flexible approach with agreements that are not necessarily exclusive (TIM and Vodafone distribute the iPhone in Italy; T-Mobile and Orange in Austria, Singtel and Vodafone in India...). The CFO of France Telecom however recently confirmed that Orange's France exclusive agreement will still last another 2 years and an half. - Spain is the only major European country missing. Another confirmation that a deal with Telefonica is likely to be announced On a related topic and from an advertising perspective, here are some interesting stats from AdMob monthly stats. No doubt the sur-representation in the "other" category for iPhone's worldwide traffic was a good indication of the grey market in countries where the iPhone had not been launched officially. Now that the geographical expansion is being completed, let's wait for innovation. See my colleague Ian Fogg's take here. 2008-05-14T11:27:31Z 2008-05-14T11:18:59Z tag:weblogs.jupiterresearch.com,2008:/analysts/husson/16.9827 2008-05-14T11:18:59Z

Brought to my attention via MobHappy, an interesting blog from Russell Buckley and Carlo Longino. Russell (in charge of European operations at Admob) has just been elected Chairman of the Mobile Marketing Association for EMEA (in replacement of Richard Saggers from Vodafone). Congrats and good luck to him....

Thomas Husson Wireless Brought to my attention via MobHappy, an interesting blog from Russell Buckley and Carlo Longino. Russell (in charge of European operations at Admob) has just been elected Chairman of the Mobile Marketing Association for EMEA (in replacement of Richard Saggers from Vodafone). Congrats and good luck to him. 2008-05-14T11:14:24Z 2008-05-14T10:56:47Z tag:weblogs.jupiterresearch.com,2008:/analysts/husson/16.9826 2008-05-14T10:56:47Z

According to the J.D. Power and Associates 2008 UK Mobile Telephone Customer Satisfaction Study released recently, Tesco Mobile ranks highest in customer satisfaction with pre-pay mobile telephone service for the first time, while Virgin Mobile ranks highest among contract mobile phone customers for a second consecutive year. There are obvioulsy...

Thomas Husson Wireless According to the J.D. Power and Associates 2008 UK Mobile Telephone Customer Satisfaction Study released recently, Tesco Mobile ranks highest in customer satisfaction with pre-pay mobile telephone service for the first time, while Virgin Mobile ranks highest among contract mobile phone customers for a second consecutive year. There are obvioulsy plenty of factors to take into account but what strikes me here is that both Tesco and Virgin are MVNOs respectively on 02 and T-Mobile networks! On a different but related topic, radio network NRJ is finally selling its stake in NRJ mobile to the other co-founder Credit Mutuel. It will be very interesting to see how the bank (with more than 5,000 points of sales) will use the brand license to adress the youth market and develop its long term strategy (NFC, mobile banking,...). 2008-05-06T09:27:32Z 2008-05-06T08:38:30Z tag:weblogs.jupiterresearch.com,2008:/analysts/husson/16.9797 2008-05-06T08:38:30Z

After the UK (02), Germany (T-Mobile), France (Orange), Austria (T-Mobile), Ireland (O2), the iPhone will be available via Vodafone in 4 new European countries (Greece, Italy, Portugal, the Czech Republic). Interesting to point out that Spain is not included in this announcement, probably meaning Apple will find another partner (Telefonica?)...

Thomas Husson Wireless After the UK (02), Germany (T-Mobile), France (Orange), Austria (T-Mobile), Ireland (O2), the iPhone will be available via Vodafone in 4 new European countries (Greece, Italy, Portugal, the Czech Republic). Interesting to point out that Spain is not included in this announcement, probably meaning Apple will find another partner (Telefonica?) for this country. Benelux and Scandinavia are also still missing to the European iPhone equation but they represent limited volumes. Indeed, later this year, Vodafone customers will also be able to purchase the iPhone for use on the Vodafone network in 6 other countries around the globe (Australia, Egypt, India, New Zealand, South Africa and Turkey). At this stage, Vodafone is not announcing any further details at present. Which version of the iPhone will it be? Will Vodafone subsidize it (not very common practice in the Southern European prepay countries)? When? Is this an exclusive agreement with Apple? There are lots of unanswered questions. Since the announcement of the launch a year and a half ago (in January 07), I am still wondering how Apple can really disrupt the market without embracing one way or another the mobile ecosystem. No doubt such an agreement will help boosting sales and reaching the 10M objective at the end of 2008. Jupiter has already pointed out reasons why Iphone did not perform well in the more competitive and fragmented European market. Some operators (T-mobile, o2) have recently slashed prices (99 euros only with T-Mobile...but with a 99 euros monthly contract and a lock-in period of 2 years). This is also part of the natural life cycle of a product and an indication that new prodcuts may follow sooner than later. Let's just hope that the long-awaited 3G version will be HSPA. Anyway, it must be, otherwise the competitive advantage over EDGE would be too limited and Apple would be lagging behind competitors. 2008-04-29T15:48:28Z 2008-04-29T15:07:29Z tag:weblogs.jupiterresearch.com,2008:/analysts/husson/16.9770 2008-04-29T15:07:29Z

Echoing my previous blog, I just received some more news on mobile TV: Vodafone Germany will launch two new DVB-T models just in time for EURO 2008. It reminds me of DVB-H just in time for the Football World cup. What happened in 2 years' time? Well, to the great...

Thomas Husson Wireless Echoing my previous blog, I just received some more news on mobile TV: Vodafone Germany will launch two new DVB-T models just in time for EURO 2008. It reminds me of DVB-H just in time for the Football World cup. What happened in 2 years' time? Well, to the great surprise of operators, the DVB-H license was not attributed to them but to another consortium of mobile 3.0: Neva Media (mainly owned by media companies Burda and Holtzbrinck) and MFD (Mobile Fernsehen Deutschland). T-Mobile may well follow Vodafone, making it even for complex to monetize the DVB-H license. In my opinion there are lots of unsolved business model issues in both cases. Using a combination of DVB-T (leveraging an existing ecosystem) and MBMS (moving forward) is an alternative contemplated by other players. However, DVB-H promoters are still adamant that DVB-T is by definition not optimized for mobile phones (impact on battery life, antenna, coverage, not an IP-based solution...). Which is by the way the very precise reason why DVB-H was created!! 2008-04-28T11:58:15Z 2008-04-28T11:54:25Z tag:weblogs.jupiterresearch.com,2008:/analysts/husson/16.9764 2008-04-28T11:54:25Z

I don't read Swedish but like me you'll understand that beyond SE performance in 3 Sweden shops, the key takeaway here is the fact USB Modem Turbo 3G sales more than any phones in the list below --------------- Sony Ericsson dominerar aprils mobilförsäljning på 3! Sverige är ett Sony Ericsson-land...

Thomas Husson Wireless I don't read Swedish but like me you'll understand that beyond SE performance in 3 Sweden shops, the key takeaway here is the fact USB Modem Turbo 3G sales more than any phones in the list below --------------- Sony Ericsson dominerar aprils mobilförsäljning på 3! Sverige är ett Sony Ericsson-land och i april lade den svensk-japanska mobiltillverkaren beslag på inte mindra än sju av platserna på mobiloperatören 3s försäljningslista. Som vanligt kan inget hota mobilt bredband på förstaplatsen. Resten av listan domineras dock stort av Sony Ericsson som dessutom bidrar med tre nykomlingar för april. Smidiga lilla K530i gör en comeback genom att gå in på tredje plats, den bruna versionen av bästsäljande nykomlingen W890i är ny femma och svarta varianten av favoriten K770i är ny sjua. På listans åttonde plats finns 3s egen Skypephone och vinterns storsäljare Nokia N95 8 GB ligger trygg på fjärde. 1. (1), 3 USB Modem Turbo 3G 2. (2), Sony Ericsson W890i 8 GB Silver 3. (ny), Sony Ericsson K530i Silver 4. (3), Nokia N95 8 GB Black 5. (ny), Sony Ericsson W890 8 GB Brown 6. (6). Sony Ericsson K770i Purple 7. (ny). Sony Ericsson K770i Black 8. (4), 3Skypephone 9. (5), Sony Ericsson W660i Black 10. (7). Sony Ericsson K770i Brown Den här topplistan visar försäljningen under den gångna månaden via 3s website, telesales, 40-talet egna 3butiker och närmare 1000 återförsäljare över hela landet. Siffran inom parentes är föregående månads placering 2008-04-24T14:08:33Z 2008-04-24T13:23:44Z tag:weblogs.jupiterresearch.com,2008:/analysts/husson/16.9755 2008-04-24T13:23:44Z

I spent a few days in Stockholm recently. Really nice city by the way. I was intrigued in 2007 by some stats from Telia reporting that for several months in a raw modems / USB Sim cards were the top-selling units in Telia 76 Swedish shops. So I decided to...

Thomas Husson Wireless I spent a few days in Stockholm recently. Really nice city by the way. I was intrigued in 2007 by some stats from Telia reporting that for several months in a raw modems / USB Sim cards were the top-selling units in Telia 76 Swedish shops. So I decided to spend some time in Telia shops but also in competitors' high street shops and in independent retailers outlets. Well, merchandizing usually tells you a lot. There were really "dongles" everywhere, promoted at every corner. They cost roughly nothing provided you pay 200 Swedish Kronen (around 21 euros) per month during a year. It is an easy sell. Most consumers decide based on a mix of coverage and price according to the vendors I spoke to. Operators accross Europe (see the pic from the Voda billboard below) are promoting dongles but it seems that Austria and Sweden are ahead, probably because they have a dynamic 3G market with a good coverage. Another interesting reason is that Swedes (but also Finns, see here) have one of the highest rates of second houses / summer houses in Europe. Why paying a full Internet package when you just need to bring your laptop? Ah working from home in a nice Nordic island... 2008-04-24T15:19:30Z 2008-04-24T13:00:28Z tag:weblogs.jupiterresearch.com,2008:/analysts/husson/16.9753 2008-04-24T13:00:28Z

Blyk just announced that they had hit the 100,000 member target six months ahead of initial plan (end 08). The ad-funded MVNO has announced it will launch in the Netherlands (sometime in S2 2008) and is willing to expand in other European countries. It is an interesting concept. The company...

Thomas Husson Wireless Blyk just announced that they had hit the 100,000 member target six months ahead of initial plan (end 08). The ad-funded MVNO has announced it will launch in the Netherlands (sometime in S2 2008) and is willing to expand in other European countries. It is an interesting concept. The company will have to adress 3 main issues moving forward: - widening the installed base so that advertisers and marketers benefit from a larger reach - making sure ads are perceived as information/entertainement so that the growing number of youth attracted by the offer will continue to engage with brand messages - find a profitable business models in countries where market conditions are not ideal for MVNOs. In this regard, bear in mind Blyk is not a totally free offer. Customers get 43 minutes and 217 texts every month for free and have to pay a fee when they reach this ceiling or when they use other services. This is also part of complex modelling of their profitability approach. 2008-04-24T11:23:05Z 2008-04-24T10:11:53Z tag:weblogs.jupiterresearch.com,2008:/analysts/husson/16.9751 2008-04-24T10:11:53Z

As expected with the forthcoming UEFA Football cup, Austrian and Swiss players will soon launch DVB-H mobile TV offerings. See here and here. As in 06 with the German World cup, the idea is to leverage a sport event as a marketing catalyst to educate customers on new services. It...

Thomas Husson Wireless As expected with the forthcoming UEFA Football cup, Austrian and Swiss players will soon launch DVB-H mobile TV offerings. See here and here. As in 06 with the German World cup, the idea is to leverage a sport event as a marketing catalyst to educate customers on new services. It worked pretty well for 3 Italy who managed to acquire 250,000 subcribers in the 1st 5 months (most of them during the 5 first weeks of the Worldcup...won by Italy) out of an initial objective of 500,000. At the end of October 07, 3 had reached 750,000 activations. Not all of them pay a fee on a monthly basis though. That being said, 3 Italy is always presented as the successful case study for DVB-H in Europe. It is true usage patterns are quite high for the circa 10% of the installed base who has used the service. Many other European countries have postponed their DVB-H launches, so it is good news that Swisscom is now officially launching on May 13. As for Vodafone and TIM in Italy, the offer will launch with a very limited range of products: only the Nokia N77! However, the device is heavily subsidized (CHF 1 if 2 years lock-in period on a 25 CHF monthly contract). Samsung SGH-P60 and then N96 (Nokia's new flagship device is supposed to ship in q3 2008 at 550 euros befores taxes and subsidies) will follow. However the DVB-H coverage is pretty ok (44% of the Swiss population according to Swisscom). For the moment, the other Swiss operators are not joining board and are not ready to pay Swisscom Broadcast who owns the Swiss DVB-H license... Beyond Italy, there are plenty of references to the success of mobile TV in South Korea. When you digg into it, this is far from being crystal clear. None of the 2 business models there have proved to be successful yet: - S-DMB (paying satellite solution from TU Media) has reached more than 1.25M cutomers mid 07 but losses are huge around 200M euros - T-DMB (free terrestrial solution) has reached more than 7.5M customers (with only a big third of them on mobile phones) but advertising revenues on which the offer is based, had generated less than 2M $ in S1 2007. There are many many other issues to be ironed out for mobile broadcasting TV to really take off. First of all, it should not really be opposed to unicast / VOD solutions as is often the case. Jupiter will soon publish a new survey on this topic so please get in touch if you want to participate or watch the space. 2008-04-18T12:40:29Z 2008-04-18T12:25:43Z tag:weblogs.jupiterresearch.com,2008:/analysts/husson/16.9727 2008-04-18T12:25:43Z

See this article in the IHT. The mayor of Graz city in Austria is ordering commuters to keep their cellphones in silent mode while riding the citys public transport. So, just imagine what a transatlantic flight would be if your neighbour was chatting all the time! Indeed, there have been...

Thomas Husson Wireless See this article in the IHT. The mayor of Graz city in Austria is ordering commuters to keep their cellphones in silent mode while riding the citys public transport. So, just imagine what a transatlantic flight would be if your neighbour was chatting all the time! Indeed, there have been recent discussions about the opportunity to introduce voice calls in planes. At the end of day, consumers will decide. And they will probably go only for the data / sms connectivity. Or will we see dedicated areas (such as smoking areas) for people urgently needing to make a phone call? Well, That's already a reality in trains between 2 compartments. Isn't just a question of savoir-vivre? or do you need to pass a law? Welcome to societal impacts of mobile phones - part 27... 2008-04-17T08:35:24Z 2008-04-16T19:53:11Z tag:weblogs.jupiterresearch.com,2008:/analysts/husson/16.9718 2008-04-16T19:53:11Z

According to French daily Le Figaro, Orange is contemplating buying Telia Sonera. TeliaSonera (merger of the 2 Swedish and Finnish incumbents) is still partly owned by the Nordic States (37.3% stake from the Swedish State and 13.7% from the Finnish State). Needless to say this would mainly be a complex...

Thomas Husson Wireless According to French daily Le Figaro, Orange is contemplating buying Telia Sonera. TeliaSonera (merger of the 2 Swedish and Finnish incumbents) is still partly owned by the Nordic States (37.3% stake from the Swedish State and 13.7% from the Finnish State). Needless to say this would mainly be a complex financial story based on company valuations, management risks, incremental growth and potential synergies. The information has not been confirmed so it clearly is a rumor at this stage. However, it it were to happen and from an industry perspective only, such an acquisition should be viewed in the context of a renewed consolidation wave which has never really stopped (see here). The difference here is that this is not only a Pan-European consolidation approach. Despite the fact that TeliaSonera is a clear leader in the Baltic countries and in Scandinavia (n2 in Norway), it is much more than that (see below). Out of the 103 mobile subscribers reported end 07, only 14M are from the Nordic/Baltic region. Like competitor Telenor, TeliaSonera is a truly international company with strong local brands (in Turkey via Turkcell and in Eurasia). For Orange, this could be a major growth engine in developing countries. In a period where telcos are increasingly competing with Internet / media leaders and manufacturers, this would also be a way to leverage scale and scope and to be able to have a stronger negotiating power with the likes of Nokia and Google. UPDATED: Apparently this information has been confirmed by the CFO to the FT, precising the discussions are at an early stage and that other options could be considered. It is however a clear sign that Orange is ready to make a significant investment. - given TeliaSonera does neither fully owned Megafon in Russia (44% stake) nor Turkcell (37% stake), the turnover in emerging countries "only" represents slighty more than 10% of the total turnover. The group is still dependent on its core mature business in the Nordics, but the value clearly is in the complementary geographical coverage the combined group would have. 2008-04-14T21:28:21Z 2008-04-14T20:06:07Z tag:weblogs.jupiterresearch.com,2008:/analysts/husson/16.9703 2008-04-14T20:06:07Z

I received a couple of e-mails from contacts in the music industry saying our latest report on mobile music sounded a bit pessimistic. I then discovered a couple of headlines from selected blogs saying "mobile music does not interest anyone"...which was the translation of another blog "a majority of consumers...

Thomas Husson Wireless I received a couple of e-mails from contacts in the music industry saying our latest report on mobile music sounded a bit pessimistic. I then discovered a couple of headlines from selected blogs saying "mobile music does not interest anyone"...which was the translation of another blog "a majority of consumers not interested in mobile music"... However the vast majority of people aren’t interested in most things, all the more if they have to pay for it. It does not prevent most stakeholders to include music as a key component in their strategies. To undserstand where such a vague headline came from, I decided to go to the source of the information and read the report of my US colleague whose key finding simply states "Few subscribers are storing and listening to full-track songs on their cell phones. Music providers and carriers must offer a more attractive value proposition to drive greater adoption or risk staying on the fringe of the portable music business". It seems to me innovation really comes from new business models today as stated by my colleague Mark Mulligan here. I could say the same thing for most mobile services. As often in the mobile industry, the question is not if but when and how much? If I say mobile TV will not be mass market anytime soon (at least not before 3-5 years), people may consider you are pessimistic. If you say, mobile TV is a niche market today, many people may look at you saying you are not taking into account "tremendous" successes in Japan, South Korea and Italy. But reality and facts are there in most European countries. If reported correctly by Reuters, even Nokia's spokespersons admit it. The tricky question is thus: "how do you transition from a niche audience to an early majority and how to define realistic expectations?". How do you move from a supply-side economy to a one driven by consumer demand? 2008-04-09T23:43:09Z 2008-04-09T22:46:44Z tag:weblogs.jupiterresearch.com,2008:/analysts/husson/16.9693 2008-04-09T22:46:44Z

Tectonic shifts are happening in the mobile industry. New entrants and new approaches of existing stakeholders in the value chain are forcing operators to redefine their roles. They were some interesting quotes reported in the press in the recent weeks made by the CEOs of 2 leading operators: “…Carriers must...

Thomas Husson Wireless Tectonic shifts are happening in the mobile industry. New entrants and new approaches of existing stakeholders in the value chain are forcing operators to redefine their roles. They were some interesting quotes reported in the press in the recent weeks made by the CEOs of 2 leading operators: “…Carriers must not allow themselves to become bit pipes” - Arun Sarin - CEO of Vodafone "We are not building freeways for Californian cars" ((november 07)and "I am not Citizen Kane" (les Echos) - Didier Lombard - CEO of France Telecom In the latter case, to read between the lines, it means operators do not want to reduce their roles to being data pipes only and let Google & co do their business on the back of carriers. It also refers to fuel consumption (Californian cars vs small European cars such as a Smart...) that would imply bandwidth constraints and higher network costs. As my colleague Ian Fogg pointed out already a year ago, the net neutrality debate is finally taking place in Europe! To maintain its strong positioning in the value chain, Orange is clearly investing the media space (but obviously not directly as a content producer, hence the reference to Citizen Kane). Orange Sport (203M euros invested in French football rights), Cinema (deals with Warner Bros & co) even though Orange only generated 400M euros in content revenues end 06. This is clearly a mid to long term positioning and has been perceived as a war declaration by Canal + (see here and here). For now it would be risky to replicate such an approach elsewhere than France since the company needs a significant installed base of customers on all its platforms (PC, TV, mobile) to recoup such an investment. Not all operators follow this route and some of them begin to admit they will become "smart" pipes, finally trying to leverage their assets and partnering with other players to become trusted enablers for their customers' day-to-day digital life styles. There are obviously different approaches and no one-size fits all answer. However it seems a new era is opening up with the so-called co-opetition where the same companies can simultaneously be partners and competitors. To know more about it, see the latest report published in European mobile: Mobile Content Value Chain: evaluating the impact of new entrants. 2008-03-26T22:41:45Z 2008-03-26T22:11:20Z tag:weblogs.jupiterresearch.com,2008:/analysts/husson/16.9652 2008-03-26T22:11:20Z

I have been skeptical at launch and ironic recently about the .mobi initiative. My point is essentially that consumers should not even have to think about the url they are typing. It should be a smooth and direct experience. From a media / brand perspective, it makes sense to have...

Thomas Husson Wireless I have been skeptical at launch and ironic recently about the .mobi initiative. My point is essentially that consumers should not even have to think about the url they are typing. It should be a smooth and direct experience. From a media / brand perspective, it makes sense to have only one single url to promote / advertise on all your docs. Having said that, the market is still under construction and it is a good thing to have initiatives like this since they help to define guidelines that will guarantee a consistent user-experience, all the more as they are based on the same open standards recommended by the W3C's Mobile Web initiative. More than the number of registered domain names (close to 1M), the important metrics to look at are the number of live active .mobi websites (10% of the registered names) and even more interesting is the developer community around .mobi (10.000+ developers). At the end of day, it is more about providing tools to develop made-for-mobile websites. You'll find much more info here. Anyway, I think the debate is not really a technical one. It is about providing the right info in a mobile context. What do your consumers want to have access to when they are on the move or when they browse on a tiny screen? Whatever the technology and even if in the case of an automatically-detected full mobile web browser, mobile Internet is likely to be different than Internet on your mobile. We are only at a stage where barriers are being removed: compelling multimedia handsets, good browsers, mobile broadband networks and transparent / affordable tariffs. With a growing audience, media / content owners will understand the need to develop optimized mobile web sites. A virtuous cycle is starting with more users driving more innovation and more developments. In the past 4 years, I have attended lots of conference where everybody was complaining about mobile data tariffs. No that "all you can eat" plans are available, it seems that the problem was solved overnight. This is still far from being the case. I am curious to see if the speeches will be somehow different at the IIR mobile Internet conference next Tuesday in Berlin. 2008-03-21T17:14:16Z 2008-03-21T16:47:50Z tag:weblogs.jupiterresearch.com,2008:/analysts/husson/16.9637 2008-03-21T16:47:50Z

2 days ago, the EU commission published its 13th report on the state of the European Electronic Communications market. Definitely worth a read if you want to know the state of the Union and better understand the telecom competitive landscape in Europe. On a different topic and as expected, The...

Thomas Husson Wireless 2 days ago, the EU commission published its 13th report on the state of the European Electronic Communications market. Definitely worth a read if you want to know the state of the Union and better understand the telecom competitive landscape in Europe. On a different topic and as expected, The European Union chose last Monday the mobile TV standard DVB-H over other versions of the technology, saying governments are now required to promote it. In the same time, Ofcom (the UK regulatory body) confirmed it is planning to auction radio spectrum in the 1452-1492 MHz band (the so-called “L Band") suitable for services including mobile TV, among others. It is more costly to develop DVB-H in the L-band than in the UHF band, which is not available in the UK, hence the international harmonisation approach from Ofcom. The contradiction is quite obvious here (see below Ofcom's presentation from July 07). Also, worth to be noted that many operators are still testing other technologies and that the decision was critized by the GSMA. Anyway, the L-band can also be used for other purposes such as satellite digital radio or broadband wireless access.