Posts by Joe Wilcox (bio)

| October 02, 2006, 03:23 PM
"A Man"

A software publisher couldn't pay enough for an endorsement like this.

Supposedly, Neil Armstrong muffed his famous line, "That's one small step for man, one giant leap for mankind." The astronaut was supposed to say "a man," and he thought that he had done so. BBC reports that "an analysis of the audio files downloaded from NASA's website using GoldWave, a $45 (£24) audio editing program, indicates that the word was spoken but not recorded." He spoke "a" too fast.

I've known about Neil Armstrong's presumed "a" flub since grade school, but I hadn't heard of GoldWave until today.

Software developers don't get marketing opportunities like this one, very often. GoldWave's software may change recorded history. The PR folks should break open the champagne and break out the press releases.

| September 25, 2006, 10:39 AM
The Light Behind the Lightroom

Today, Adobe issued the fourth beta for forthcoming product Lightroom, which now also carries the Photoshop brand.

Photoshop Lightroom is an excellent example of how Adobe is harnessing assets from its Macromedia acquisition. Soon after the acquisition closed, Adobe issued Lightroom Beta 1.0 from what was then still called Macromedia Labs. Three betas later--and rebranding to Adobe Labs--development of the new product continues. Macromedia had great developer relations and a fairly different group of developers than Adobe. I don't doubt the decision to release Lightroom betas through the former Macromedia Labs has benefited the product's development.

I get lots of questions about the Adobe-Macromedia merger, and many of them are about product plans. But the merger is much bigger than the products. There are many other synergies that go unnoticed. Product development is often one of them.

| September 13, 2006, 12:17 PM
Lonelygirl's Lesson

I've watched with fascination as a community of sleuths hunted down and outed Lonelygirl15. Her YouTube videos--and people's fascination with them--prompted today's New York Times story "The Lonelygirl that Really Wasn't." This week, 18-year old Matt Foremski revealed Lonelygirl15's identity. She's not homeschooled, nor is she lonely.

Some of my colleagues will probably look at what the Lonelygirl phenomenon means for viral marketing or user created content on sites like YouTube. I'll take a different tack, noting how much the Web has changed in the last three to four years. The revolution isn't over, it's just beginning.

Blogs, wikis and other Internet tools are harnessing the skills of a large number of people, in a startling collective consciousness that has huge implications for many individuals, communities, governments and businesses. There are lessons, too, about the longevity of Web content and the power of search (cached Google pages helped reveal Lonelygirl's identity).

What happens when the collective consciousness turns to you and your business or products? Ahead of yesterday's Apple "It's Showtime" event, bloggers revealed Apple patent applications and other Internet-gleaned tidbits as a means of guessing what products or services might be revealed. Most of the stuff didn't materialize yesterday, but there's always "one more thing" from Apple. Some of last week's speculation might turn out to be future revelation.

The lesson: Many bloggers or community blogsites specialize in digging out corporate or product secrets, and their genie isn't magically going back into the bottle. Once again, the Web is changing the rules of smart business practice.

Companies that don't understand what has happened over the last few years should electroshock their corporate synapses. JupiterResearch has closely monitored these newer tools and put out blogs, reports and podcasts about them and what they mean to our clients. My colleagues monitoring this stuff are top of field. I pipe in on their behalf because I've been on the Web since 1994, and I have watched lots of changes over the last 12 years. Not since the early days of the Web have I seen such a period of disruptive and, frankly, exciting change.

Some suggested recent reports my colleagues have written:

* Feed Marketing: Use of RSS as Alternate Messaging Medium," June 21, 2006

* Music and Community: Low-Cost, Authentic Promotion," May 19, 2006

* "Blogs and Consumer-Created Content: Publisher Tactics for Meeting the Challenge of Citizen Journalism," April 28, 2006

* "RSS Comes of Age: Budgeting, Deploying, and Measuring RSS," April 26, 2006

* The Future of News: Capturing a New Audience Online," December 20, 2005

* "PR and Blogs: Monitor and Prepare for Inter-Consumer Communication," October 27, 2005

* "User-Created Content: Reaching Younger and More-Involved Readers," October 18, 2005

| August 25, 2006, 01:54 PM
Weird Al

Maybe his viral marketing campaign will do more for his upcoming album than "Snakes on the Plane" Internet buzz did for the movie.

| July 25, 2006, 10:59 AM
Details Matter

I definitely agree with Leander Kahney, who in today's Wired online explains "Why I Love Apple." He discusses the "craftsman's attention to detail" and what long-term impact that can have on the customer experience.

Speaking personally, my best notebook experiences--where there was a "wow" opening the box and caressing the new purchase--have been with Alienwares, Macs, ThinkPads and VAIOs. That's because Alienware, Apple, IBM (and now Lenovo) and Sony pay attention to design. The second "wow," of discovery and satisfaction because of the "craftsman's attention to detail," has come more consistently from Macs and ThinkPads. Attention to detail reinforces the customer experience over time and demonstrates the manufacturer's pride in its products.

When there is no new discovery of niceties, or worse, the customer experiences what I call "usability hazards," satisfaction can decline. Bluntly: If the manufacturer doesn't care about its product, why should you?

| July 19, 2006, 02:33 PM
Apple Camp, But Not a Sleepover

This morning, my wife took my daughter to the local Apple Store at Montgomery Mall in Betheda, Md., for Apple Camp. My daughter attended a free class for iMovie.

She got to make a movie with three other kids (the class had a dozen total) and she left with bunch of freebees (e.g., Apple Camp swag): Certificate, T-Shirt, Field Journal (e.g., notebook), Field Guide and cloth Apple Camp patch. For the parents that had to hang around for the two-and-a-half hour class, the Apple Store provided complimentary iPods (not to take home, of course, but for in-store listening).

I do know the stores have offered the classes for a few summers, but I don't know what these classes cost Apple to run. Whatever the cost, the end payout has got to be greater. My daughter is suddenly quite excited about iMovie and all the swag has generated good feelings about Apple.

I think other high-tech companies with retail operations, like Dell or Sony, should take a long, hard look at what Apple is doing with these summer educational camps. There are good reasons why McDonalds offers Happy Meals. They create good memories for kids and positive association with the restaurant--and then there are the parents, which are likely to positively respond about anything that benefits their kids (or appears to).

If you want to reach the parents, the kids are a good way about it. Kids are purchase influencers, too, as colleague David Card (he heads up JupiterResearch teen research) can better explain than I. Additionally, Apple Camp exposes the products and the Apple brand to consumers when they're young (and presumably more impressionable).

| July 06, 2006, 08:38 AM
Best Buy offers Pro Digicam

Spotted: Canon EOS 5D at my local Best Buy. I was shocked to see it. The full-frame, 12.8-megapixel camera sells for $3,299 before $300 rebate. The target user tends to be semi-pro or professional photographer, so the EOS 5D looked a little out of place next to the $199 digicams.

Or, maybe the EOS 5D was where it was supposed to be. Over the last couple of years, I watched stores like Best Buy stock digital SLRs as they reached a certain level of mass-market appeal. Canon broke the less-than-$1,000 price point in 2003 with the Digital Rebel. After a period of time in camera stores, the Canon dSLR and successor Digital Rebel XT moved onto Best Buy store shelves. I remember my surprise, when after a number of months following its release, the Canon EOS 20D made its way to store shelves. The EOS 20D was more of a semi-pro camera, for which Canon's target profile was the demanding wedding photographer.

I don't expect Best Buy sells many Canon 5Ds, but it's safe to assume that the retailer wouldn't stock the high-end digicam if consumers weren't buying at all. As I said last year, lower dSLR prices will open new markets, particularly for people with investment in existing lenses.

Looks like dSLRs sales are bombing. Last week, Nikon said it expects more than a 30-percent rise in its dSLR shipments. Canon and Nikon are both increasing dSLR shipments to meet growing demand.

I'm currently using a Nikon D200 and testing Apple Aperture and Adobe Lightroom, which is Beta 3. I will next look at Windows Vista's new built-in RAW capabilities. While the feature benefits are first for more professional photographers, Apple, Adobe and even Microsoft are developing their software for more general photo enthusiasts shooting dSLRs, too. It's a market in great transition.

| July 03, 2006, 10:15 AM
John Tucker's MySpace

Yesterday. I took my daughter and a couple of her friends to see "Superman Returns." Previews started after seven commercials. One preview, for movie "John Tucker Must Die," caught my attention. The teen revenge movie has a My Space. It's the first movie trailer that I've seen with a MySpace instead of a Web address. Let me repeat that: No Web address, just a MySpace.

It's a Twentieth Century Fox movie, so the tie-in isn't as shocking (Rupert Murdoch added MySpace to his News Corp empire, which includes Fox, last summer). Still, the tie-in says something about Murdoch's MySpace advertising and branding plans and the site's huge appeal, particularly to younger consumers. Movie studios' approach had been to drive traffic off a branded site, often a domain related to the movie. A branded MySpace is quite different. It will be interesting to see if other studios follow Fox's lead.

Colleague David Card is more the expert in this area--teens, Web marketing and branding--so I defer to his good judgment and more thorough analysis. His recent "MySpace: Fad or Phenomenon?" podcast is a great primer on the social networking site.

| June 12, 2006, 10:54 AM
Digicams of the Arts

On Saturday, my daughter and I (my poor wife was sick) attended the Columbia Festival of the Arts in Columbia, Md. I was struck by the number of digital cameras in use. I only saw one film camera--and I had to look hard to find even that one.

While most people used click-and-shoot digicams, I saw a whole bunch of digital SLRs. I mean lots--50, at least, by my count, which I'd say was close to a third of all digicams observed. Most people carried the Nikon D50 or Canon EOS Rebel/Rebel XT. I'm not surprised because of the dSLRs' price points.

As I said in March 2005, declining dSLR prices could open up "a new digital camera market for people with lenses and equipment purchased for 35mm film cameras." Increased dSLR demand creates opportunities for software vendors, too. Windows Vista will natively support RAW (as does Mac OS X today). Last year, Apple released Aperture, and Adobe is testing new product Lightroom. Both packages are geared for photo professionals and sophisticated amateurs.

Next month, Sony will enter the dSLR market with the alpha (A100). Specs, including a 10-megapixel sensor, are impressive. The question is what will the camera deliver for $999. If nothing else, Sony's alpha may push down higher-end features to lower prices, just as Canon and Nikon have done. And that's got to be good for dSLR adoption.

| May 21, 2006, 09:20 AM
Measure of Success

How could Apple ask for better than this?

| May 08, 2006, 12:12 PM
Iconic iPod

This morning at the doctor's office, I skimmed through the March 15 Business Week. Something in story, "Mickey D's McMakeover," caught my attention. In describing the approach to the resturaunts' new look, McDonalds exec John Miologos said,"Think iPod: clean lines, simplicity."

I normally wouldn't equate iPod with McDonalds--and may never. But John's statement says much about iPod as an icon, as something much bigger than just a music player, whether iPod influences design or is used simply to describe good design.

| April 28, 2006, 02:30 PM
Better than YouTube (Almost)

Yesterday, the Firefox folks wrapped up their Firefox Flicks 30-second commercial contest, picking three winners and two honorable mentions. I'm a huge fan of viral marketing, and Mozilla is trying to make the viral easy. Below each movie are links for emailing, embedding or adding to Websites any of the videos. I wonder how many commercials MySpacers will add to their blogsites.

I've long said enthusiasts are the best marketers. Firefox users can not only contribute to improving the open-source browser but promote the heck out of it, too, and share those promotions with friends.

But I've got to say that I liked the honorable mentions, "This is Hot" and "Give Me the Soap" better than the winners.

| April 13, 2006, 04:25 PM
Surprise, Surprise

OK, Apple has given another reason for me to jump on my overdeliver soapbox.

Today, the company released Aperture 1.1 and cut the price by $200. Apple announced the pro photographer product last October and started shipping around the end of November, which works out to about five months of sales. Rather than miff those customers that bought early and paid more, Apple will offer them a $200 coupon. It's not cash back, but 200 bucks spendable at Apple's online store. Purchasers of the Academic version get a $100 coupon.

The perk works to the advantage of the customer and Apple. Who can complain about bucks back--even electronic ones--following a price cut? My cell carrier recently slashed off $150 on the phone I bought two months earlier. Whining in the store got no consideration or refund on the cost difference. The e-bucks back offer is a good way to build customer loyalty and even increase it. After all, the $200 must be spent on stuff Apple sells online.

Who doesn't like surprises? For early Aperture buyers, Apple has a $200 reward. The smart-as-all-hell approach relates to yesterday's post about presence and Apple.

| April 12, 2006, 10:38 AM
The Answer is Presence

Julio asks the wrong question about the press and Apple, or maybe he doesn't seek the right answer. He writes: "For some reason journalists seem to be obsessed with Apple, and they also seem to ignore the fact that their market share in the computer world consists of less than 5%."

Some people command presence. They might not be the richest or smartest folks in the room, but they have sway. People notice them. Presence is a quality of character, something I contend Apple has that many other high-tech vendors do not. I don't see the news media ignoring Apple's market share compared to Windows PCs, just that their attention is elsewhere.

Apple's presence--expressed through marketing, branding and vision--makes it seem more important. After all, influence isn't measured in percentage of PC market share. I think that many people see Apple as much (or more) cultural icon as business. The company's vision means something to many people--including members of the news media--and that emotional appeal is part of Apple's presence. What's that expression about being larger than life--or, with Apple, larger than PC market share?

| April 07, 2006, 01:08 PM
Sell It Like It Is

Business Week has a good primer on making good presentations, using Apple CEO Steve Jobs as role model. Emphasis is on simplicity, clarity and communicating user benefits.

I've harped plenty about emphasizing user benefits, their importance over features and putting them in context. In that respect, the Business Week story is more than about presentation; it's also about good marketing practice.

| March 31, 2006, 03:43 PM
Tick Tock, Turn the Clock

Daylight Savings Time starts early this year in the US, with clocks going ahead one hour early on Sunday morning. The question: Will it cause havoc come Monday morning? I'll be fascinated to see if Windows XP, Mac OS or device operating systems will automatically adjust, or will they be stuck in the past waiting for the last Sunday in April.

| March 10, 2006, 01:28 PM
Hey, I'm Already a Customer

Two weeks ago, I got a large FedEx/UPS-size/style envelope marked "priority" in my mailbox. The "priority" mailing, sent by US Mail, came from Verizon, which invited me to sign up for Fios fiber-optic DSL service. Yesterday, UPS delivered a similar offer, packaged the same way, with the same invitation. My next-door neighbor got one, too.

I'm confused about Verizon's marketing strategy, and maybe colleague Joe Laszlo (he's JupiterResearch's broadband expert) can make sense of it. I already have Fios. I'm a customer. So why is Verizon trying to sell me something I already have and spending special (or so I assume) on UPS-delivered marketing materials? My neighbor has Fios, too.

| February 27, 2006, 05:26 PM
Starbucks, iPod and the College Boys

My daughter and I attended a weather class at the University of Maryland, College Park on Saturday. Afterwards we hit the local Starbucks (which is cavernous), me for java, her for chocolate.

While I waited to pay, one guy popped out of the back and said, "Hey, Josh, I've got your iPod." He held a black iPod with video. The cashier turned to Josh, who worked the coffee machine, and asked, "What movies have you got on your iPod?" Because the cashier handed over my change, I pulled away to make room for the next customer. So I didn't find out what the movies were.

Who says there's no interest in portable video? The guy borrowing the iPod watched video, not listened to music.

Pack my bags, I want to move back to College Park.

| February 02, 2006, 01:52 PM
F-R-I-V-O-L-O-U-S

I'm sure people are more likely to go deaf at the Super Bowl than from this. Or from going to a rock concert, clubbing or picking up kids at the noisy daycare.

| February 02, 2006, 11:48 AM
Looking Smug in the Mug

Yesterday I spoke with the folks over at photo-sharing site, SmugMug. The company and its technology surprised, because of an approach somewhat atypical of 2006 Internet companies, which increasingly are acting like it's 1999.

All in the family. SmugMug is a family-run business, which isn't typical in high-techdom. Bill Gates' and Steve Jobs' passion for the companies they founded drives innovation and commitment to the businesses and their customers. How much more can this be true for a family-run Internet company.

You get what you pay for. Unlike many, perhaps most, Internet services companies, SmugMug is built around subscribers. There are no ad-supported free accounts. The approach smacks in stark contrast to the oh-so-1999 approach of ad-revenue driven sites. Heck, Microsoft's Windows Live network of products and services will be first free and ad-driven and second, in some cases, subscription-based. That ad- and subscription-supported approach is fairly common among other photo-sharing sites.

SmugMug's approach is focused. Unlike many other photo-sharing sites, SmugMug isn't targeting most consumers. The company's service is more for photo enthusiasts or semi-professional and professional photographers. I think services like SmugMug shows that some people will pay, and only pay, if they like the offering. By the way, SmugMug is profitable, just on subscriptions.

Small is the new big. Back in 1999, small companies made a big splash on the Internet. Then a whole bunch of them went away with the dot-com collapse. Ubiquitous broadband, Internet user tenure, new browser capabilities and better back-end technologies create new opportunities for smaller companies to make big presence again. Of course, those assets are merely starting points of advantage. Vendors still have to offer something consumers want and appropriately execute.

Ajax is more than a cleaner. SmugMug makes excellent use of hot browser technologies like Ajax (Asynchronous JavaScript And XML), which helps create a more desktop-application experience inside a Web browser. I created a SmugMug photo gallery late yesterday. I simply dragged images into Internet Explorer 7 Beta 2 Preview and clicked upload. Rearranging uploaded pictures within a browser was as simple as drag and drop. Mmmm, maybe there is something to all this Web 2.0 talk.

I'd like to see more companies like SmugMug, that succeed despite the mine field of mistakes left behind by failed Web 1.0 companies. A suggestion for the SmugMug folks: I like the approach of providing a way for semi-pro and pro photographers to sell their images. But why do just prints? Why not provide a means for them to sell digital images, too?

| January 25, 2006, 07:18 PM
Tween Reviewer

My 11 year-old is the consummate shopper. When deciding what new handheld or console game to buy, she scours the reader reviews on various Websites. This afternoon she created an Amazon account just so she can post reviews. What does that say about kids, marketing and the Web?

| January 24, 2006, 04:41 PM
Sigh. More Bad Tech Reporting

Sometimes I get totally ticked off about bad high-tech reporting and the feeding frenzy one story can generate.

Yesterday, CNET News.com ran an outrageous story suggesting that Apple's iWork had eclipsed Corel WordPerfect sales and that, according to the headline, "Apple's iWork emerges as rival to Microsoft Office.” Wrong on both assertions.

According to JupiterResearch surveys, based on usage, WordPerfect is No. 2, behind Microsoft Office in the consumer, SMB and enterprise markets (roughly 15 percent in each market). I can't speak for retail sales. CNET News.com used another analyst firm's retail data. My problem isn't with that other firm's data but how CNET News.com used it to make something out of absolutely nothing.

Here's why.

The data used to state CNET News.com's position is limited to a single sales channel. Corel launched a second WordPerfect Office 12 suite in 2005, putting greater emphasis on smaller businesses. Along with the repositioning, Corel widened the number of sales channels for WordPerfect Office. The software is available in many different channels, including retail, new PCs, online catalog stores like PC Connection and local resellers, among others. I wouldn't be shocked if WordPerfect sales shifted among those channels, but that isn't the same as a decrease in sales. Similarly, the story doesn't offer iWork sell-through data on these other channels, so there is little more than a partial sales comparison for the two products. I should note that Corel's sale to one customer--50,000 units to the US Justice Department--is, based on figures cite by CNET News.com, nearly as much as iWork retail sales for all of 2005.

Contrary to CNET News.com's position, iWork isn't an Office suite. It's even a stretch to call the software, which contains two programs, a Works package on par with Microsoft Works. Any iWork comparison to Microsoft Office or WordPerfect Office is an apples-to-oranges comparison, at best.

There's an obvious logic problem with the contention that iWork, which is only available for Macs, could somehow rival Microsoft Office. After all, various industry sources, including Apple, put the company's PC marketshare at less than 5 percent. JupiterResearch surveys show that more than 60 percent of consumers, the majority with Windows, run Office on their primary home PCs. Among businesses, Office usage tops 90 percent. Assuming that Windows is on 95 percent of PCs and Mac OS on another 5 percent, the iWork numbers don't add up. Even if every Mac user in that presumed 5 percent bought iWork, Office’s dominance on that other 95 percent would easily eclipse the upstart.

The better--but still not great--comparison is misleading, or, in news media parlance, leading. The CNET News.com story did compare retail sales of iWork to Office 2004; both are Mac products. But the story mistakenly treats iWork and Office retail sales like market share. There is nothing to indicate in the numbers revealed in the CNET News.com story to suggest that iWork snatched sales from Mac Office. The story also failed to provide historical retail sales data for Office and WordPerfect, which could have given more perspective on what impact iWork sales had, if any, on the other two products. The story also left out historical sales of AppleWorks, which iWork essentially replaced.

The story also fails to account for sales cycles. Retail software sales tend to be strongest the first couple months following a new release, declining thereafter. Corel launched WordPerfect Office 12 in April 2004. Additionally, vendors tend to reduce retail shipments of software ahead of the release of a new version, so as not to have too much inventory in the channel. New WordPerfect version X3 launched last week. It’s reasonable that Corel started reducing channel inventory in the last quarter ahead of the new product’s launch. Revealing would be January and February sales of WordPerfect Office X3.

Better reporting approach would have looked at retail sales of iWork with respect to Mac computer, Mac peripheral and iPod sales, as a means of assessing the extent of the so-called iPod halo effect. Instead, reporter Ina Fried took a quick hit approach that made too much out of the presented data.

I rally to Corel's defense because this CNET News.com story is spreading, across blogsites and other news sites. There was too much bad technology reporting in 2005. There's no reason 2006 has to be the same way.

| January 11, 2006, 06:57 PM
Intel Tools Up Mac Developers

Every once and awhile I like to post a reminder that Intel is much more than a hardware company. The chip manufacturer also has a software branch that produces valuable tools for partners and customers.

Today, Apple joined Intel's software tools rank and file. Intel released beta tools to help Mac software developers better support Cuo Duo processors.

Viiv tools are available, too. Viiva la Media Center!

| January 09, 2006, 12:25 PM
What's in the Lightroom

Today Adobe announced new product Lightroom, which cranks up the pressure on Apple's Aperture and stakes out Adobe's space around photo editing and production.

Right now, a Mac OS X beta is available. Adobe also plans a Windows version. I wouldn't infer anything from the betas being out of synch. Adobe recently released Photoshop Elements 4 for Windows, ahead of the update for the Mac. The company doesn't always develop Mac and Windows products exactly in synch, although it is my understanding that Lightroom will be available for both platforms around the same time.

By the way, the beta's availablity reflects some of the benefits Adobe derived from the Macromedia acquisition. Adobe is using beta infrastructure that Macromedia had in place.

To be clear, Adobe is not following Apple, even though Lightroom and Aperture bear some similarities with respect to approach and target market. Vendors don't just create software overnight. Adobe clearly has been working on Lightroom for sometime.

The approach is the right one: Providing a more streamlined set of tools for photographers, particularly for down-and-dirty editing and managing workflows. Timing is right. Falling digital SLR prices are opening up a new market of amateur and professional photographers with existing lenses.

I had a chance to start using the Mac beta last week. The interface is streamlined, much more so than Adobe Photoshop. Yet, the software clearly inherits from its sibling. Aperture, by the way, is a first-generation product, while Lightroom comes from a long heritage. I expect Lightroom to appeal to photographers, some of which may have used Photoshop. No question, Photoshop is a great photo-editing product, but its toolset and production orientation is more publishing. Lightroom is software for photographers.