Living in Longhorn’s Shadow

Joe Wilcox | October 30, 2003, 10:01 PM

Microsoft’s biggest challenge coming out of its developer conference, which ended today, will be getting everyone focused back on Windows XP. That includes employees, developers and, perhaps most importantly, the high-tech and business press.

This task may be no easy one. The hype leading into the conference largely focused on the debut of Longhorn, the next major version of Windows. I expect to see the press writing stories about Longhorn for weeks ahead. I can assure you many folks over at Microsoft aren’t too happy about Longhorn’s shadow casting over Windows XP.

If they really care about customers, that’s exactly how they should be thinking. Longhorn is as much as three years from release. Windows XP is here and now, and Microsoft continues to innovate on the platform. Windows XP Service Pack 2 goes into beta before the end of the year. This batch of updates is crucial to Microsoft and its customers, because the company has promised critical security updates and better patch management controls.

Meanwhile, the next version of Tablet PC, codename Lonestar, is creeping through alpha stage towards beta. Microsoft is planning to release Lonestar during the first half of next year. At the same time, the good `ol marketers in Redmond are getting ready for the big holiday push around Windows XP Media Center Edition 2004. They’ve good reason to expect a big bounty of sales through Santa’s workshop.

For six months, I’ve been predicting a resurgence in consumer PC sales. The rebound is here. During its 2004 first fiscal quarter earnings call, Microsoft projected PC growth had surged 15 percent. That’s a healthy increase, considering the last 24 months or so of disappointing worldwide PC sales. I’m not surprised by the surge. Three years ago, Internet server provider rebates of up to $400 fed a PC buying sales boom. The three-year contracts resulting from those rebates have been expiring all year long. Now that those consumers have shed their monthly ISP dial-up fees, they're freer to consider a shiny, new PC. Besides, three years is just about the right time for a PC upgrade, anyway. All this makes the fourth quarter a potentially jolly holiday sales period. That’s potentially good news for the second version of Microsoft’s entertainment OS.

As for businesses, they have every reason to continue Windows XP upgrades. What else is there for Windows other than version 2000, anyway?

Trust me when I say lots of folks at Microsoft are way more concerned about Windows XP than the mythical Longhorn. I say mythical, because the OS doesn’t exist. Sure, Microsoft assembled some pieces together for a developer preview, but Longhorn is a long way from completion, and many pieces remain in the concept stage.

So, right now, based on the interpretation of the hype--and there’s been plenty of that--Longhorn is pretty much what people want it to be. In some ways, that makes Longhorn larger than life, so to speak. The mystery surrounding Longhorn is inviting, exciting and sure as hell makes for good headlines. By comparison, a new iteration of Windows XP or stats on how many more businesses are using it, may not seem as exciting to the reporter or editor looking for the next big scoop. It’s too bad we may be reading about Longhorn for a long time. I wonder if so much the new OS may seem passé when it finally ships.

In the meantime, I tip my hat to the Microsoft folks trying to shift the focus back to where it belongs: Windows XP, which is what the company sells today.